Further evidence of tightened lending conditions and a potential credit crunch can be seen in the notable decline in demand for credit by large and middle market firms, a new survey of loan officers from the Federal Reserve shows. This decline will affect the real economy in the near term ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Economic headwinds and your business: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
American middle market businesses are facing a rapidly changing economic and political landscape, from raising the nation's debt ceiling to tightening credit conditions and persistent inflation. How to make sense of it all? Join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of ... READ MORE >
Is a debt-ceiling crisis coming? Money markets are saying yes.
Risks around to the economic outlook linked to a looming debt-ceiling crisis have been in the market for some time. This pricing in of risk has become particularly apparent now that both Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office have put Congress on ... READ MORE >
Hiring in U.S. remains robust in April as the jobless rate falls to 3.4%
We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the ... READ MORE >
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The Federal Reserve increased its policy rate for the tenth consecutive time on Wednesday, pushing the federal funds rate to a range between 5% and 5.25%. The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues into April
April marks a full year of contraction in the manufacturing sector. The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index, based on surveys conducted by five regional Federal Reserve banks, continued to signal a downturn in the production of goods during April. Overall manufacturing activity remains at ... READ MORE >
U.S. growth slows to 1.1% as businesses pull back
Growth in the first quarter expanded at a 1.1% annualized pace and by 1.6% on a year-ago basis as a modest inventory correction—a net drag of 2.26%—and a large pullback in business investment—a net drag of 2.34%—offset the robust 3.7% increase in overall household consumption. This data, ... READ MORE >
Growth, employment and identifying the end of a business cycle
Growth during the first quarter most likely expanded at a 2.35% pace based on our RSM economic forecast in contrast with the 2% consensus. This growth, though, is not likely to last. Given the emerging consensus among economists that the economy will fall into a recession this year, a ... READ MORE >
Why the dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, and will stay that way
Recent talk that China, India and Russia are settling purchases of oil in non-dollar denominations has generated speculation that the dollar’s days as the world’s reserve currency are ending. This is nothing new. There were similar discussion during the financial crisis 15 years ago and, ... READ MORE >
March inflation data points to a Fed rate peak in May
The inflation outlook improved in March because of a mix of year-over-year base effects and a significant decline in energy prices, all of which caused the top-line reading to decline to 5% from 6% previously. The core estimate, which excludes food and gasoline, eased to 5.6%, while the ... READ MORE >