Seven FOMC members supported one cut this year, eight supported two and four supported no cuts. Overall, the forecast projects a 5.125% rate later this year. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
U.S. consumer price index cools in May as gas and transportation costs decline
The encouraging May CPI data released by the Labor Department on Thursday is likely to be the first in a string of constructive inflation reports that will define policy normalization at the Fed. … READ MORE >
U.S. financial conditions update: A shift in structure and a new center of gravity
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index turned positive in January and has centered at 0,25 standard deviations above zero since March, indicating the normal level of risk priced into financial securities. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Strong demand for labor continues its remarkable run in May
Labor demand continues to increase at a remarkably strong pace, which removes the prospect of a July rate hike and creates the sense that the Federal Reserve may fall further behind other central banks as they pivot to lower rates. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Dot plot to imply two rate cuts this year
We expect the Federal Open Market Committee to keep its policy rate unchanged between a rate of 5.25% and 5.5% at its meeting next week. … READ MORE >
Global central bank policy pivot continues as ECB cuts rate
The rate cuts in Europe and Canada are likely to be followed by the Bank of England in August and the Fed this fall. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Decline continues in May
Surveys of manufacturing firms conducted by five regional Federal Reserve banks continue to show the negative impact of a tight monetary policy and the lagged effect of an aggressive fiscal policy. … READ MORE >
Global central bank outlook: Reducing rates to bolster growth
With disinflation having taken hold around the world, it is time for central banks to reduce their restrictive policy rates to promote demand and growth. … READ MORE >
Assessing central bank policy in the post-pandemic economy
Stagnant global growth amid a structural economic shift demand a policy response by central banks still attempting to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
Interest rate volatility: Why Fed policy guidance is less effective
The past year has had significant volatility in financial markets, with dramatic shifts in the 10-year yield and multiple resets in market expectations for interest rate paths. … READ MORE >