We think intervening to devalue the dollar would be folly. In the end, the result would be upward pressure on prices, reduced demand and, ultimately, a slowing economy. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
GDP growth slows to 1.6% in first quarter, exaggerated by volatile trade and inventory data
Overall growth in U.S. gross domestic product fell to 1.6% in the first quarter, but the slowdown was exaggerated by volatile trade and inventory data, which provided a 1.2% drag on overall activity. … READ MORE >
Regime change: Businesses face higher costs in nominal and real terms
Whether it is high single-digit borrowing costs for large multinationals or double-digit financing costs for middle market firms, elevated interest rates have become a fact of life for firm managers. … READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and the rising oil risk premium threaten global recovery
Global oil markets are pricing in a risk premium of $7 to $10 a barrel in the wake of Iran’s drone attacks on Israel over the weekend, posing the single largest risk to the current global economic recovery. … READ MORE >
Financial markets update: An improved outlook for corporate borrowing
With spreads on corporate bonds easing, borrowing by firms will bolster a sustained expansion and an economy that outperforms expectations this year. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: American exceptionalism amid dynamic growth
The American economy continued to show resilience in March, adding 303,000 jobs as the unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. … READ MORE >
Initial claims reflect remarkable job security in American economy
First-time claims increased to 221,000 from an upwardly revised 212,000 during the previous week. … READ MORE >
Full employment, low inflation and a virtuous cycle in the American economy
Today, we think that the economy has reached full employment and that a virtuous cycle that bolsters productivity and dampens inflation is now possible. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: The Boeing effect takes a toll
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined in March, reflecting sluggish activity across the production sector in general and the problems at Boeing in particular. … READ MORE >
Federal Reserve’s policy path points to a rate cut in June
Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term. … READ MORE >