A pillar of the American economy in the recovery from the pandemic has been household balance sheets, which have been bolstered by a robust labor market and nominal income growth. But now, with the prospect of tighter lending standards and reduced spending caused by the recent banking ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Bank deposit carousel continues as investors search for yield
Outflows of deposits from small banks paused last week, while outflows from large banks increased. This implies that funds continue to flow out of traditional banking and into money market funds or other alternative investments as investors search for yield. While it is too soon to declare the ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues
There was little sign of improvement in U.S. manufacturing among the five areas surveyed in march by the Federal Reserve banks. According to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index based on those surveys, manufacturing activity remains at 1.8 standard deviations below normal. That implies a ... READ MORE >
The great deposit migration, moral hazard and a fragmented banking system
Fragmented and fragile are appropriate words to describe the American banking system. The recent financial shock has exposed the underlying problem: A flawed regulatory framework treats small and medium-size institutions unequally compared to their largest competitors. The current ... READ MORE >
The impact of expectations for Fed policy on the money and bond markets
After three months of what seemed to be disregard for the direction of Federal Reserve policy, the money markets are once more expecting a tightening of financial conditions. But it took a banking crisis to get there. The bond and credit markets in our estimation are pricing in a recession ... READ MORE >
Catch-25: Fed hikes rates amid financial stability risk
Joseph Heller’s novel “Catch-22” delved into the impossible conditions imposed upon people caught in situations from which there is no escape because of mutually conflicting or dependent conditions. That Catch-22 is an apt description of where the Federal Reserve finds itself as it lifted its ... READ MORE >
Financial shock sending Fed proxy rate into restrictive terrain
The financial shock affecting the U.S. economy will most likely result in tightened lending standards, tip the economy into recession this year and cause mild disinflation. The quandary faced by the Federal Reserve—balancing price stability, full employment and financial stability—requires an ... READ MORE >
Coordinated central bank action follows the Credit Suisse-UBS merger
Global financial stress accelerated over the weekend, requiring coordinated action by central banks to stem dollar funding pressures in financial markets as investors digested the forced merger of Credit Suisse and UBS. Large additional tier one bondholder losses amid the $275 billion ... READ MORE >
The great deposit migration and emergency borrowing at the Fed discount window
The banking crisis has spurred a dramatic flight to safety at all levels of the financial system. From investors seeking the assurance of money market funds, to depositors shifting their money from smaller banks to systemically important financial institutions, to banks themselves accessing ... READ MORE >
How many jobs need to be sacrificed to tame inflation? Cost is rising, RSM models show.
Events are outpacing the best-laid plans of policymakers. The current turmoil in the financial sector will place constraints on the Federal Reserve’s efforts to restore price stability. Our research indicates that the Fed, facing persistent inflation, will for now have to accept a ... READ MORE >