Our modified Taylor Rule implies that the federal funds policy rate should be reduced to a range between 4.75% and 5% in the near term. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
The Fed at an inflection point: A webinar from RSM US and U.S. Chamber of Commerce
With inflation easing and the labor market showing some signs of softening, the Fed has signaled that it intends to cut rates three times this year. But when will those cuts start? … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady as it implies three rate cuts in 2024
The primary takeaway from the Federal Open Market Committee’s policy statement and forecast is that the Fed, along with other major central banks, are likely to provide a near-synchronized set of rate cuts this year and next. … READ MORE >
Should the U.S. ban imports of Chinese electric vehicles?
Should a pause or outright barrier on entry of Chinese EVs into the U.S. market happen, this should not lead companies to become complacent. … READ MORE >
U.S. employment report: Robust hiring continued in February
Sustained demand for labor in the American economy was on vivid display on Friday as the Labor Department reported that 275,000 jobs were created in February. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Soft sentiment in an uneven recovery
The slowdown in manufacturing continued into February, but at a slower pace, according to surveys conducted by regional Federal Reserve banks. … READ MORE >
How real is the wealth effect in a bull market?
Using a back-of-the-envelope calculation, we estimate that the sharp rebound in equities last year contributed to an increase of roughly $900 billion in households’ stock wealth, or $288 billion in consumer spending. … READ MORE >
What would Keynes do? Russian assets and funding the war in Ukraine
One way to finance the Ukraine war: Use Russia’s foreign exchange reserves as collateral to raise private sector debt. John Maynard Keynes just might have approved. … READ MORE >
Natural gas and the move toward energy self-sufficiency
Natural gas accounts for roughly 30% of the energy used domestically, and the U.S. is now the largest global exporter of LNG. … READ MORE >
Solow Residual: Total factor productivity and the U.S. economy
A recent study by the San Francisco Federal Reserve found that total factor productivity grew by a robust 4.99% on the most recent quarter after adjusting for factors such as labor, capital, utilization and worked hours. … READ MORE >