Switzerland’s central bank put forward $53.7 billion in liquidity on Wednesday to prevent a probable collapse of Credit Suisse, a systemically important global financial institution. The infusion by Swiss National Bank calmed global markets, but financial stress remains elevated and is ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
It’s a matter of trust: Financial conditions tighten on stability risks
Trust is the lubricant that makes modern commerce possible. It facilitates an uninterrupted operation of finance that allows firms to fund expansion and modern economies to operate efficiently. It reduces transaction costs, minimizes frictions and creates the conditions for broader and deeper ... READ MORE >
February CPI: Balancing price stability vs. financial stability as inflation remains elevated
Inflation in the United States accelerated modestly in February, increasing by 0.4% on the month and by 6% on a year-ago basis. It was a similar reading in the core number that excludes food and energy, with prices in that sector rising by 0.5% on the month and by 5.5% compared to a year ago, ... READ MORE >
U.S. job creation remains robust, implying more aggressive rate hikes
If one wanted to create a confluence of cross-currents that make the job of policymakers more difficult, one might choose the combination of a red-hot economy, robust job gains, elevated inflation and an estimated $620 billion in potentially unrealized losses inside the banking ... READ MORE >
The debt ceiling stand-off: Frequently asked questions
As middle market businesses weigh the costs of the stand-off over raising the nation's debt ceiling, we offer some answers to frequently asked questions about how the dispute will play out. What is the debt ceiling? The debt ceiling sets a limit on how much debt the U.S. government can incur. ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index tightens as market sees a hard landing
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index inched down to 0.6 standard deviations below neutral from 0.4 previously as policymakers, investors and firm managers prepare for a period of higher interest rates and persistent inflation. Markets are moving to price in a hard landing around a ... READ MORE >
February’s jobs report is likely to generate more questions than answers
The February jobs report will most likely provide another questionable estimate of labor conditions in the American economy, overstating the pace of hiring in the private sector. We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the data is released on Friday, with many of the gains ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows a continuing slowdown
The downturn in manufacturing continued in February, according to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index. At 1.9 standard deviations below normal, our proprietary index implies a manufacturing sector set to lead the overall economy into a slowdown. While the overall economy remains ... READ MORE >
Bond market shows a shift in inflation expectations
In the first weeks of the year, financial markets have gone from anticipating a near-term end to the Federal Reserve’s price stability program to the realization that the Fed is not yet done. The S&P 500 increased by 9.3% through Feb. 2 as part of this broad expectation that the Fed would pause its ... READ MORE >
RSM revises its Fed call as inflation proves sticky
The common thread between the inflation reports for January was a reacceleration in service-based inflation that is proving sticky and is not likely to abate enough for the Federal Reserve to pull back on interest rate increases. For this reason, we are changing our call on the path of monetary ... READ MORE >