Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Inflation expectations remain remarkably well anchored
The Federal Reserve’s five-year inflation forward breakeven rate—a closely watched measure of inflation expectations—stands at 2.3%, below the cyclical peak of 2.67% posted on April 19, 2022. … READ MORE >
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
January’s data shows that inflation is continuing to ease even as wages increase on an inflation-adjusted basis—an undeniably positive development. … READ MORE >
Revising our 2024 inflation outlook: Moving back to a 2% target
We expect the Fed to begin cutting rates in June, and that the central bank will reduce its policy rate four times this year, by 25 basis points each. … READ MORE >
Hiring accelerates in January as unemployment remains below 4%
The U.S. economy created 353,000 new jobs in January on the back of an upward revision to 333,000 from 216,000 in December. … READ MORE >
Productivity continues to rise in potential game changer for economy
The increase in productivity has most likely been a catalyst for both robust economic growth and disinflation over the past year. … READ MORE >
FOMC policy decision: Setting the predicate for rate cuts
The Federal Reserve shifted its bias on monetary policy away from tightening to a balance of risks that favors neither rate hikes nor cuts. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Pullback tempered by rise in capex
The pullback was tempered by an increase in capital expenditures, a reflection of the resilience in the American economy. … READ MORE >
Financial conditions turn positive amid economic resilience
For the first time since February 2022, the RSM US Financial Conditions Index has turned positive amid a robust economy, strong labor market, easing inflation and rising real wages. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Modest adjustments will lead to pivot by midyear
The FOMC next week will almost certainly leave its policy rate unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5% and maintain the pace of quantitative tightening. … READ MORE >