With demand remaining strong, middle market firms have been increasing their inventories during the current quarter, with just under a majority expecting to do so over the next six months, according to the RSM US Middle Market Business Index. Inventories are now growing at twice the rate of ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Understanding the facts in the debt ceiling debate
As the stand-off over raising the nation’s debt ceiling drags on, a rational discussion of the issues at play has often been lost amid the political rhetoric. For example, who holds the debt? (Americans, mostly.) Is China the biggest foreign holder? (No, Japan is.) Is American financial stability ... READ MORE >
Fed’s survey of loan officers points to caution in the middle market
Even as financial conditions have eased in recent months, helping to spur a rally in equity markets, one area of America’s real economy has been flashing warning signs: the commercial and industrial loan market. Demand for these loans, an important engine of growth, plunged last year as lending ... READ MORE >
Rising interest payments, deficits and the debt ceiling crisis
The mounting stand-off over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling has put a renewed focus on the rising cost of financing the nation’s debt. While these interest payments are rising quickly as the Federal Reserve raises rates to tame inflation, it’s important to have some perspective. As ... READ MORE >
Financial conditions ease as downturn in corporate debt issuance lingers
As the Federal Reserve has slowed the pace of its interest rate increases recently, financial conditions in the American economy have eased as well. The RSM US Financial Conditions Index has moved to only 0.4 standard deviations below normal as asset prices anticipate improved prospects for reduced ... READ MORE >
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, ... READ MORE >
Fed hikes rates by 25 basis points as it approaches peak
Price stability for the past three decades has been defined as a 2% inflation target, far below the elevated levels of the past year. Now, after a year of aggressively raising interest rates to bring down inflation, the Federal Reserve faces the monumental choice on when to pause its rate hikes. On ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues
The downturn in manufacturing in the United States continued in December and January, according to the RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index. Our index has now dropped below levels of activity in previous midcycle downturns, falling from two standard deviations above normal in the summer of 2021 to ... READ MORE >
Measuring the risk of default in the debt ceiling crisis
The standoff over raising the federal government’s debt ceiling is not the first time that members of Congress have threatened to default on payments of existing U.S. public debt. During past episodes, the policy brinksmanship has pushed up the cost of financing, caused a selloff in equity markets and ... READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Fed to slow pace of rate hikes to 25 basis points
The easing of inflationary pressures, a slower pace of consumer spending and hiring, and the moderation of wage increases are coalescing in such a fashion that the Federal Open Market Committee next week should be comfortable slowing its rate increases. We anticipate that the FOMC will increase its ... READ MORE >