The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 0.25% at its December meeting on Wednesday as it prepares the public and market participants for the normalization of monetary policy and the first increase in interest rates next year. The central bank’s policy rate decision and forecast, on the back of a ... READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Chart of the day: With oil prices elevated, will U.S. production follow?
The high price of gasoline has become a major economic concern for Americans. Rising energy prices are expected to restrict household spending and disproportionately hit low-income consumers. Given the decline in oil prices over the past two weeks, gasoline prices are expected to follow, which ... READ MORE >
November U.S. job data: A tale of two reports as unemployment rate fell to 4.2%
The American labor market tightened noticeably in November despite a slower pace of hiring, according to Labor Department data released Friday. Rarely has an estimate produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed such a divergence between the two surveys of the labor market—the establishment ... READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: November was a good month
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index in November reached its highest level since the spring, indicating a sustained economic recovery should the health crisis not get in the way. Despite snarled global supply chains that have made obtaining goods challenging, the domestic manufacturing sector ... READ MORE >
Wholesale gas futures point to decline in retail prices
Following Tuesday’s announcement of the coordinated release of strategic oil reserves, policymakers and investors are focusing on the indirect—or some would say the actual— target of such an action: consumer retail gasoline prices. Based on the relationship between retail gasoline costs and wholesale ... READ MORE >
What the global coordinated release of petroleum reserves means
The politics and policy of global inflation will begin to shape markets as major global economies push back in direct and indirect ways on the surging price of oil. Recent jawboning of the oil market by the Biden administration and its global allies has resulted in a roughly 9% decline in the price ... READ MORE >
Looking ahead to 2022 and what to expect in the economy
Nearly two years into the pandemic, there are signs that the worst of a once-in-a-century shock to the global economy is beginning to fade. As the economy approaches a full reopening, we expect growth in 2022 will exceed 4%, the unemployment rate will fall to 3.5% and job growth will average ... READ MORE >
The infrastructure package will bolster productivity and economic modernization
The $1.2 trillion infrastructure package recently signed into law by President Biden will increase productivity, reduce business costs, cut carbon emissions, improve living standards and have the potential to lift economic growth above the current long-run rate of 1.8%. Once one accounts for ... READ MORE >
Introducing the RSM US Supply Chain Index: Sustained growth depends on retooling
The infrastructure that supports the domestic and global economies has experienced a significant stress test over the past few years. The twin policy shocks caused by the 2017-2020 trade war and the decision to effectively shut down elements of the global economy during the pandemic have resulted ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Pricing in the December debt cliff
The Treasury bill market is pricing in a shortage of notes in November as the threat of a debt ceiling crisis grows. Despite the recent legislative passage of a 10-year infrastructure investment plan, Congress and the Biden administration are no closer to an agreement on lifting the debt ceiling. We ... READ MORE >