As of Friday, our composite RSM US Financial Conditions Index remained at 0.9 standard deviations below neutral, corresponding to higher levels of risk than would normally be priced into securities. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
About that recession: Resilience now, risks ahead
Despite elevated inflation and interest rates, as well as tightening financial conditions and softening demand for loans, the economy has chugged along, thanks in no small part to strong consumer spending. … READ MORE >
Inflation remains sticky in April, rising by 4.9% over a year ago
April’s increase in the consumer price index was in line with RSM’s forecast of a 4.9% gain and the consensus estimate of 5%, and will most likely support the doves at the Federal Reserve who want to pause interest rate increases. … READ MORE >
What would happen if the government defaults on its debt?
Policy brinksmanship over lifting the debt ceiling and the threat of default it brings is increasing the cost of doing business and carries far more risk than is commonly acknowledged. … READ MORE >
Fed survey shows a notable decline in loan demand
Roughly 56% of loan officers noted a decline in demand for loans by large and middle market firms, while 53% reported a decline in credit demand by small firms, according to the Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released Monday. … READ MORE >
Economic headwinds and your business: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Brusuelas and Bradley will examine the changing landscape of risk and offer insights into how businesses can adapt. … READ MORE >
Is a debt-ceiling crisis coming? Money markets are saying yes.
Not only have three- and five-year U.S. credit default swaps soared to multiyear highs, but distortions are also emerging at the front end of the Treasury curve. … READ MORE >
Hiring in U.S. remains robust in April as the jobless rate falls to 3.4%
We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the … … READ MORE >
Fed hikes rate a quarter point while creating framework for a pause
The 25 basis-point increase was accompanied by changes in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement that imply a possible pause at the Fed’s next meeting in June. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Slowdown continues into April
Overall manufacturing activity remains at 1.85 standard deviations below normal, a level consistent with past recessions. … READ MORE >