Producers and consumers have pulled forward economic activity to avoid potential tariffs, which has skewed hard data and dampened soft sentiment data. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market minute: Widening credit spreads denote rising risk from trade policy
Wider spreads are often a harbinger of reduced access to capital, rising unemployment and declining corporate capital expenditures. … READ MORE >
Europe’s way forward in a post-industrial world
Change has come to Europe’s developed economies. The combination of China Shock 2.0 and a reduced American security umbrella is creating the conditions that if seized could move Europe toward a more perfect union. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. financial conditions continue to deteriorate
Financial conditions continue to deteriorate as uncertainty and volatility creep back into the equity, bond and money markets. … READ MORE >
Fed holds rates steady with a stagflation-lite forecast
The Fed’s statement and forecasts draw a picture of a central bank that is on its heels and looking to ascertain the difference between signal and noise amid rising uncertainty as it determines its policy … READ MORE >
Market minute: There is no alternative to the U.S. dollar
The dollar remains the currency of choice for emerging markets. The dollar’s percentage share of emerging market bonds stands at 86.3% and is 81.7% of all credit. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. runs a trade surplus with Canada excluding oil
The oil trade between the two countries is a function of geographical proximity, efficiency, cost and infrastructure concerns. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Will the economy keep on truckin’? An indicator is saying no.
The Dow Jones U.S. Trucking Index has declined 24% from its peak on Nov. 11 and is down 21.5% since its recent high on Feb. 18. … READ MORE >
The waiting is the hardest part: Fed can’t do anything about tariffs
We expect the Fed to keep its policy rate in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% while adjusting its Summary of Economic Projections to anticipate slower growth at or near 2%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Drill, baby, drill and the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum
The spot price of 5.5-inch diameter North American steel pipe, used by drillers to extract oil, has soared more than 20% over the past month. … READ MORE >