Cost curves associated with housing construction are rising, margins are thinning and it would logically follow that construction unemployment will increase later this year. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Requiem for the dollar?
The United States’ attempt to rebalance the global economy to better serve its interests has resulted in the flight of capital out of the country, harming American businesses and consumers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Dollar tumbles as investors exit U.S. assets
A loss of credibility and confidence in the policy to disrupt patterns of trade has spread from domestic financial investors to global fiscal and monetary authorities. … READ MORE >
March inflation moderated in the last clean report before tariffs
Investors and policymakers should anticipate top-line and core inflation to advance at a 4% to 4.5% pace by the middle of the summer. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Tariffs and the damage done
Even after a surge in equity markets on April 9, American financial conditions stand at 1.1 standard deviations below neutral, indicating a drag on overall growth. … READ MORE >
Simultaneous shocks to tip economy into recession in current quarter
We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Yields spike as financial conditions tighten and investors seek cash
The 10-year Treasury yield surged on Tuesday to close at 4.29% in a sign of the pressure building across the fixed income complex as investors seek cash. … READ MORE >
More noise than signal: U.S. adds 228,000 jobs in March
For now, the entry of people into the workforce and wage gains will provide a cushion for the economy as it adjusts to the new realities of higher taxes on imported goods. … READ MORE >
Market minute: U.S. effective tariff rate hits 23%, creating conditions for downturn
The effective tariff rate in the United States now stands at 23% following Wednesday’s announcements of new tariffs, with the trade-weighted average mean currently resting at 18%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Ending the American put on the global economy
As the reality of what may be up to a 20% increase in taxes on imports sets in, global production and consumption will fall back as will imports into the U.S. … READ MORE >