First-time claims for unemployment benefits declined to 232,000 for the week ending Aug. 27 as continuing claims increased modestly. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
How high must unemployment rise to tame inflation?
To reduce inflation to acceptable levels, it will be necessary to destroy between 1.7 million and 5.3 million jobs. … READ MORE >
Powell at Jackson Hole: From era of abundance to one of insufficient supply
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was blunt in his remarks at Jackson Hole, Wyo.: “Reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below-trend growth.” … READ MORE >
Expectations at the end of business cycles
The Federal Reserve has a blunt yet effective instrument to fight inflation: raising the federal funds rate. But using it requires a delicate balancing act. We offer a snapshot of what to look for as the economic cycle plays out. … READ MORE >
Jackson Hole preview: Powell to set tone for next few years
Policymakers, investors and firms should prepare for a regime change in inflation that will require tighter monetary policy ahead as the central bank lifts the policy rate to 4% by the end of the year. … READ MORE >
US July CPI: Inflation posts likely peak as commodity, gas and transportation prices fall
Commodity, oil, and gasoline prices declined noticeably in July, driving the pace of top-line inflation lower even as core inflation continued to increase at a torrid pace. This will provide a large boost to overall consumption and economic activity as Americans likely spent roughly $400 million less on gas compared to the previous month which will result in improved consumption and direct relief to beleaguered households. … READ MORE >
Payroll employment returns to pre-pandemic levels
The U.S. unemployment rate now stands at 3.458%, the lowest rate in 50 years and one that many of us will most likely not observe again in our career arcs. … READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report: A recession is not yet at hand
Economies in recession do not produce 528,000 jobs in a given month and have 3.5% unemployment rates. Since January, total employment has increased by 3.3 million jobs and the unemployment rate has declined from 4% to 3.5%. With such a robust labor market, claims that the economy is in recession … … READ MORE >
Labor force dynamics: 60,000 jobs per month are needed to keep the jobless rate near 4.4%
Long-run changes in the labor force have slowed its growth and are likely to result in a shortage of workers even if the economy falls into recession. … READ MORE >
Can a price cap on Russian oil work?
The idea of placing a cap on the price of Russian oil leaves the question of enforcement—or how to prevent Russia and other nations from getting around the cap. … READ MORE >