Inflation is now the most significant factor in investment decisions. Until the Federal Reserve creates the conditions approximating price stability, the economy will remain at risk. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
FOMC preview: 50-basis-point hikes through September
We expect that the Federal Open Market Committee this week will lift the federal funds policy rate by 50 basis points to a range between 1.25% and 1.5%. … READ MORE >
Oil prices and price gouging: Deconstructing the price of gas
The impact of global market forces like the war in Ukraine and OPEC far outweighs whatever influence retailers or refiners have on the prices that consumers pay at the pump. … READ MORE >
U.S. May jobs report: Robust gains in total employment as wage increases ease
American firms continued to hire workers at a torrid pace in May to meet strong demand amid a historically tight labor market and 8.3% inflation. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index shows 35% probability of recession over next year
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index declined into negative terrain in May, signaling the impact of high inflation, rising interest rates, the lockdowns in China and the war in Ukraine. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index: Risk aversion returns
The RSM US Financial Conditions Index is now more than 1.20 standard deviations below normal as losses in the equity market pile up, volatility increases and credit spreads widen in the bond market. … READ MORE >
U.S. April Consumer Price Index: Peak inflation provides no solace
About the best one can say about the April inflation report is that year-over-year metrics appear to have topped while core inflation increased. … READ MORE >
U.S. April jobs report: Another month of solid payroll gains
Sustained strength in wages continues to attract workers back into the American labor force which resulted in a net increase of 428,000 in April. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview: Rate hikes and balance sheet reduction are up next
Next week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting will kick off an extraordinary two months of policy decisions by the Federal Reserve in which we expect the central bank to hike its policy rate by 100 basis points. … READ MORE >
Interest rate update: Confidence in the Fed, but uncertainty over long-term growth
The Federal Reserve has started to normalize interest rates, lifting the short-term transaction cost off the zero bound. The result has been a 100-basis point increase in the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. … READ MORE >