The net increase of 467,000 in total employment on the back of a significant upward revision to the December estimate, from a gain of 199,000 to 510,000, affirms what the household survey has implied for the past two months: The U.S. economy is quickly approaching full employment. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
The Real Economy, Volume 86: How the Fed is managing its dual mandate
In this month’s issue of The Real Economy, our chief economist, Joe Brusuelas, examines how the Fed, with inflation on the rise, is trying to strike a balance between maintaining price stability and full employment. … READ MORE >
Acceleration of wage increases raises caution flag for policymakers
The wage component of the index has now accelerated from a 2.5% rate of increase in the third quarter of 2020 to 4.2% a year later and, most recently, to 4.5% in the fourth quarter last year on an annualized basis. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index: Omicron’s dampening effect
The RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index receded again in January, providing another indication of the direct effect of the omicron variant on the business community and a sign of the eventual moderation of the post-crisis surge in growth. … READ MORE >
U.S. jobs preview: Stick a giant omicron asterisk on the January report
The omicron variant has almost surely created significant distortions in the American workforce that will become evident when the jobs report for January is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Monetary and fiscal policy in a changing economy: Reflation, and the risks that remain
The last in a series of articles regarding monetary and fiscal policy as the economy restarts within a changing framework of labor force choices, automation and pricing. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP increases 6.9% in fourth quarter
The American economy closed out last year on an upbeat note, finishing with a 6.9% growth rate in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted annualized pace, the fastest pace since the 7.2% rate in 1984. … READ MORE >
Fed to use conventional and unconventional tools to obtain price stability
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled that it intends to use both conventional and unconventional tools to address risks to the economic outlook caused by inflation. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Omicron variant will extract a powerful economic toll
The omicron variant has caused many people to pull back on work and spending, which is why we have downgraded our first quarter growth forecast for gross domestic product to 1.5%. … READ MORE >
How the Fed plans to use its balance sheet to craft a soft landing
The reduction of the Fed’s balance sheet is little understood, but it may end up challenging the conventional wisdom that the Fed will raise its policy rate four times this year. … READ MORE >