After nearly two years of extreme accommodation in the financial markets, the RSM US Financial Conditions index eased to 0.96 standard deviations above neutral—a sign that markets are starting to price in more risk. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Price stability now a paramount concern as inflation hits 7%
The Consumer Price Index rose to a 7% annual rate in December, presenting a challenge to the Federal Reserve as it attempts to restore price stability. … READ MORE >
December jobs report preview: Expect the unemployment rate to fall to 4.1%
We expect a net change in total employment of 475,000 jobs and a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.1% when the jobs report for December is published on Friday. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence surveys reflect a bifurcation of the nation’s economy
Recent readings of consumer confidence are revealing an increasingly bifurcated economy as households continue to grapple with the pandemic. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Supply chain issues ease as demand-pull inflation rises
Estimates of logistics data in the RSM US Supply Chain Index, as seen in the index’s Nowcast, point to improved conditions in the U.S. supply chain heading into the end of the year. … READ MORE >
FOMC meeting: Setting the stage for three rate hikes in 2022
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday set the stage for multiple increases in the federal funds policy rate next year by accelerating the tapering of asset purchases to $30 billion per month, up from $15 billion. The tapering should be wrapped up by March. … READ MORE >
U.S. November retail sales: Consumer spending moderates
The American consumer has held up remarkably well during the recent surge in inflation. But that was not the case in November as the pace of spending moderated to an 0.3% increase, which is likely because of an adjustment to rising prices. … READ MORE >
U.S. Consumer Price Index: Inflation broadens out as shelter costs rise by 4.8%
The overall Consumer Price Index climbed by 6.8% on a year-ago basis in November, and by 0.8% on the month as inflation continued to broaden out. … READ MORE >
Bank of Canada decision: Central bankers set the stage for 2022 rate hikes
The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate at 0.25% at its December meeting on Wednesday as it prepares the public and market participants for the normalization of monetary policy and the first increase in interest rates next year. … READ MORE >
Chart of the day: With oil prices elevated, will U.S. production follow?
Our model of the relationship between wholesale gasoline futures and retail gasoline prices implies a decline of 15% to 20% from the current national average of $3.36 per gallon. … READ MORE >