Service inflation and rents, though, are still advancing a well above 4%, which in conjunction with slowing growth does not bode well for the economy … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Market minute: Risk of stagnation, stagflation and slower growth
Despite the trading community pricing in three rate cuts this year, employment, wage and inflation data imply a Fed that may be reluctant to reduce rates into an economy that is slowing amid sticky inflation. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Concern over government shutdown showing up in money markets
The one-month T-bill rate of 4.29% is now below the 4.30% three-month rate and about to breach the Federal Reserve’s repo-facility award rate of 4.25%. … READ MORE >
The risk of an inventory correction is rising
Producers and wholesalers have prepared for higher tariffs by buying goods in advance, which is creating the conditions for a modest inventory correction should demand slow. … READ MORE >
Solid labor demand persists as U.S. economy adds 151,000 jobs in February
The American economy added 151,000 jobs in February, a sign that demand for labor remains solid amid the significant policy changes in Washington. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Job growth, unemployment and federal contractors
We expect the U.S. jobs report for February to show a net increase in employment of 160,000 and an unemployment rate of 4%. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Goods deflation, food inflation and a lack of exemptions
Consumers face the possibility of double-digit increases in many grocery items given the quantity of fruit and vegetables imported from those two countries. … READ MORE >
U.S. tariffs and their impact on growth and inflation
While it is too early to quantify the tariffs’ overall impact, a rough estimate implies between a 0.5% and 0.75% drag on growth this year and a one-time 0.6% increase in prices. … READ MORE >
Defense buildup in Europe points to a broader fiscal realignment
The financial implications of higher European defense spending implies that a broader fiscal realignment could take place. That is what is behind the rising equity valuations and the rise in the benchmark German 10-year yield. … READ MORE >
Market minute: The volatility smile in a time of trade disruption
One way to understand the financial impact of policy uncertainty is to look at the implied volatility of important bilateral currency pairs. … READ MORE >