Yields broke past 1% overnight Tuesday and traded in a range on Wednesday. They did not move sharply following the civil unrest in Washington. We expect the 10-year yield to end the year at 1.29%, which is up from the 1.073% at the time of this writing. … READ MORE >
Joseph Brusuelas
Initial jobless claims: Still elevated as another benefits cliff looms
First-time jobless claims held steady at 787,000 for the week ending Jan. 2, while the number of those claiming unemployment benefits stands at 19.1 million, the Labor Department reported Thursday. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Residential construction spending remains robust
Residential spending has been rising since February 2019, increasing by nearly 18% on a year-over-year basis in November. … READ MORE >
December payroll preview: State and local government employment to continue contracting
We anticipate a decline of 75,000 jobs in total U.S. employment and an increase in the unemployment rate to 6.8% when the jobs report is released Friday. … READ MORE >
RSM US Manufacturing Outlook Index remains positive, but within a range
Optimism in the American manufacturing community is poised to continue in the new year, though with some caution attached. It is clear that the risks around the pandemic are rising and we may observe volatility in manufacturing indices until the bottlenecks around vaccine distribution are solved. … READ MORE >
The U.S. external sector: Trade channel to support 2021 recovery
We expect the trade channel to be a major part of the 2021 growth narrative as the Biden administration mends fences with the major American trade partners, excluding China, early next year. In fact, one can already observe the stirring in animal spirits in the global economy as the nascent … … READ MORE >
The $900 billion coronavirus relief package is a necessary start. But first it needs to be enacted.
RSM’s chief economist, Joseph Brusuelas, analyzed what the developments around the coronavirus relief package mean and commented on the state of the economy in this interview on Wednesday with Yahoo! Finance. … READ MORE >
Late year fiscal aid lifts growth prospects for 2021
Congress on Dec. 21 passed a $2.3 trillion year-end spending bill, including $1.4 trillion to fund the federal government through September 2021 and a $900 billion rescue package to provide direct fiscal aid to households and businesses equal to 4.25% of GDP. This represents the second-largest economic aid measure in … … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: Coronavirus patients overwhelm hospitals and their workers
The resurgence of the coronavirus not only threatens to overwhelm hospitals and the number of beds they have to treat patients, but it also puts enormous strain on the workers themselves and their ability to manage cases. … READ MORE >
CHART OF THE DAY: The vanishing worker
The domestic labor market is approaching a potential inflection point for millions of workers. The number of people unemployed for more than 26 weeks is rising, and they have about a 10% probability of finding work at wages similar to what they earned before their extended unemployment. … READ MORE >