We expect a net gain of 150,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% when the U.S. employment report for July is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Market minute
Market Minute: Spending slowing as consumers navigate uncertainty
We expect a 0.3% increase in personal spending in June as consumers increase outlays following the 0.1% decline in May. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Stagflation and dissent at the FOMC
We expect the federal funds rate to remain in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the FOMC meeting this week and we do not expect Chairman Jerome Powell to imply that a September rate cut is in the cards either. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The widening gap between equities and the real economy
Equities have become priced to perfection recently, fueled by bank and tech earnings that have exceeded expectations. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply and demand for gas at equilibrium
National average prices that were over $5 per gallon in early 2022 at the start of the Ukraine war dropped to $3.30 in May. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Global central bank outlook
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: In financial conditions, it’s as if nothing happened
The rebound in equities suggests that investors have shrugged off tariffs, and it is as if the Middle East conflict never really happened. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shocks and inflation expectations
The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East over the weekend could very well be the next step in a broader global supply shock. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Central banks not immune to rising gas futures
Between May 30 and June 17, gas futures increased by 10.2% in the United States and by 16% in Europe. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are stocks in Alfred E. Neuman territory?
After months of wild swings, the S&P 500 index is back near its record high. But there are warning signs. … READ MORE >