Manufacturers continue to expect higher input prices while holding mixed expectations regarding capital expenditure in the next six months. … READ MORE >
Market minute
Market Minute: U.S. residential investment never recovered after financial crisis
American residential investment, which stands at 3.3% of gross domestic product, remains tepid at best amid an affordability crisis that will not be solved anytime soon. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. July jobs report preview
We expect a net gain of 150,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% when the U.S. employment report for July is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Spending slowing as consumers navigate uncertainty
We expect a 0.3% increase in personal spending in June as consumers increase outlays following the 0.1% decline in May. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Stagflation and dissent at the FOMC
We expect the federal funds rate to remain in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% at the FOMC meeting this week and we do not expect Chairman Jerome Powell to imply that a September rate cut is in the cards either. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The widening gap between equities and the real economy
Equities have become priced to perfection recently, fueled by bank and tech earnings that have exceeded expectations. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply and demand for gas at equilibrium
National average prices that were over $5 per gallon in early 2022 at the start of the Ukraine war dropped to $3.30 in May. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Global central bank outlook
Divergence figures to be the primary theme in global central banking during the final six months of the year as policymakers around the world adjust to higher American tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: In financial conditions, it’s as if nothing happened
The rebound in equities suggests that investors have shrugged off tariffs, and it is as if the Middle East conflict never really happened. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shocks and inflation expectations
The escalation of hostilities in the Middle East over the weekend could very well be the next step in a broader global supply shock. … READ MORE >