At least for now, there is no viable alternative to the dollar as the global reserve currency. … READ MORE >
Market minute
Market Minute: Gas price volatility is an echo of past crises
Most recently, in 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused disruptions to the energy supply chain, sending gasoline prices 60% higher. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shock, CPI and falling real wages
Our forecast for the May consumer price index implies an increase of 0.5% on the month and 4.2% from a year ago, along with a decline in real wages of 0.8% over the past 12 months … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Americans still have the travel bug
Despite surging air fares, airline demand remains on a solid trajectory that looks like the strong years of 2024 and 2025. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Expect hiring to edge higher amid soft wage growth
We are forecasting that the jobs report for May will show an increase of 95,000 new positions with risk of a quicker pace. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Four imbalances that pose a risk to the economy
Even as financial conditions remain a modest tailwind for the overall economy, there are imbalances that pose a risk to the outlook. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation embedded in the fabric of our lives
Repercussions from the supply shock continue to spread, with cross-market implications for both synthetic and organic fibers that will disrupt global apparel supply chains. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The end of bond-market complacency
After shrugging off the breakout of war in the Middle East, the front end of the U.S. bond market is now pricing in the risk of higher inflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. April jobs report preview
Our forecast for the U.S. employment report for April expects an increase of 60,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to stay at 4.3%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Listen to what the bond market is saying
Both 30-year and 10-year bond yields are trading at the top of recent ranges, suggesting uncertainty and a greater risk in holding long-term securities. … READ MORE >