Ahead of the U.S. jobs report for September that will be released Friday, we anticipate that the pace of firings, which is probably the best indicator of the underlying health of the American economy, will arrive at or near the 13-week moving average of 205,000.
The low-fire, slow-hire context that has defined the U.S. jobs market over the past two years is not likely to change anytime soon.
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Although discontent is probably the best word to describe how most Americans would characterize the economy, it is not because of widespread or growing unemployment.
Rather, the domestic labor market is best described as remarkably stable amid growing concern around inflation-adjusted wages, which have been flat since March.
With the U.S. labor market at or near full employment, businesses continue to carefully manage their labor force as sophisticated technology is adopted to bolster productivity and meet demand.
While it is true that some workers are having difficulty re-entering the labor market, current bouts of unemployment remain less than three months for most workers even as hiring on average remains near 70,000 per month.
