The Federal Reserve signaled at its meeting on Wednesday that it is done raising its policy rate and is poised to reduce it by 75 basis points next year, with more cuts after that. … READ MORE >
monetary policy
R-star: The role of the natural rate of interest in monetary policy and economic growth
Known by economists as r-star, it has risen to a range between 1.75% and 2% in our estimation, a marked increase from the 0.5% that had prevailed over the previous 15 years. … READ MORE >
RSM revises its Fed call as inflation proves sticky
We now expect at least three 25 basis-point hikes at the Fed’s March, May and June policy meetings with the risk of a 50 basis-point hike in March. … READ MORE >
Blowout January jobs report likely exaggerates hiring
Seasonal noise always presents problems when estimating the January jobs picture at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the first employment estimate of the year serves as a useful reminder not to overinterpret one report. The blowout 517,000-job increase in total employment for January, reported by the Labor Department … … READ MORE >
American consumers grow more cautious as spending falls
Personal spending fell by 0.2% in dollar terms in December and by 0.3% after adjusting for inflation, which rose by 0.1% on the month. … READ MORE >
The pandemic response: Improving policies in future crises
Nearly three years into the pandemic, we can use the experience of these programs to understand what worked and be better prepared for the next health or financial crisis. … READ MORE >
Home sales dropped by 17.8% last year in biggest drop since 2008
December’s sales declined by 1.5% to 4.02 million units annualized. That brought the total number of units sold last year to 5.03 million, 17.8% lower than in 2021. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation eases in December, supporting a moderation in Fed rate hikes
Top-line inflation declined by 0.1% on the month in December and increased by 6.5% on an annual basis. … READ MORE >
Canada job gains top forecast, complicating decision on rates
The Canadian labour market added 104,000 net jobs in December, significantly higher than the forecast of 5,000. … READ MORE >
U.S. economy generates 4.5 million jobs in 2022 as labor market remains hot
The American economy added 223,000 jobs in December, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% and wages increased by 4.6%. … READ MORE >