The omicron variant’s spread put pressure on industrial production in December as production declined by 0.1%, missing the estimate of a 0.2% increase on the month, according to data from the Federal Reserve on Friday. The unexpected decline was mostly offset by an upward revision of 0.2 percentage ... READ MORE >
omicron variant
RSM US Financial Conditions Index: A move toward normal
After nearly two years of extreme accommodation in the financial markets, the RSM US Financial Conditions index stands at 0.96 standard deviations above neutral—a decline from the elevated levels during the pandemic and a sign that markets are starting to price in more risk. The index’s more modest ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales decline despite a strong holiday season
Price pressures and continued labor shortages magnified by the rapid spread of the omicron variant drove retail sales down by a disappointing 1.9% in December. The decline on the month came despite a strong holiday shopping season, when many consumers heeded warnings about depleted inventories and made ... READ MORE >
Americans’ real earnings are higher today than before the pandemic
Even as prices have soared in recent months, American workers are earning more than they did before the pandemic as the overall gains in their wages have outpaced inflation over the past two years. The real average hourly wage rate in December—which is adjusted for inflation and is an indicator for ... READ MORE >
Initial U.S. jobless claims exceed pre-pandemic level as omicron variant sets in
New filings for U.S. jobless benefits last week rose to 230,000 from 207,000 the week before, exceeding the average pre-pandemic level for the first time in six weeks as the impact of the omicron variant began to be felt in the labor market. The unexpected increase in new claims was also influenced by ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Supply Chain Index shows continued strain
Supply chain disruptions in Canada worsened in December as businesses continued to be hindered by the fallout from flooding in British Columbia and a shortage of workers. The RSM Canada Supply Chain Index stands at 2.17 standard deviations below zero, down from 1.47, in a sign of just how persistent ... READ MORE >
RSM Canada Financial Conditions Index shows the return of risk
Risk is being reintroduced into Canada’s financial markets as investment decisions and monetary policy begin to pivot from interest rates at the zero bound. Though the rates are still far lower than in normal times, three-month Treasury bills have moved off recent lows, with the forward market now ... READ MORE >
Canada’s jobs report shows strong gains among full-time workers
Canada added 55,000 jobs in December, rounding out the year on a strong note, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Friday. The entire gain in jobs occurred in full-time employment, which added 123,000 jobs, while part-time employment declined by 68,000. While the unemployment rate ... READ MORE >
U.S. December jobs report: Economy has strongest year of job creation on record
Recovery, resilience and reimagination are apt descriptions of the American economy two years into a debilitating pandemic. Like a bruised prizefighter in the late rounds of a championship match, the American economy closed the year on a strong note by adding 199,000 jobs in December. Once one ... READ MORE >
Chart of the day: Service sector grew at slower pace in December
The purchasing managers’ index for the service sector grew at a much slower rate in December as supply chain delays continued to put a drag on service activities, according to a report Thursday from the Institute for Supply Management. The slower rate of growth will most likely persist given that the ... READ MORE >