given the looming fiscal and trade policy changes, it is growing more likely that the central bank will pause its rate-cutting campaign to ascertain their impact on the economy. … READ MORE >
PCE
Strong gains in Income and spending boost economic growth in September
American households are well positioned to keep spending at a 3% to 3.5% pace as inflation moves back to 2% and real wages continue to increase. … READ MORE >
Inflation falls to lowest level since February 2021
With the productivity boom and more interest rate cuts coming, the economy is poised to repeat the economic growth and prosperity of the 1990s. … READ MORE >
Spending cools more than expected as Fed contemplates rate cuts
American consumers pulled back in April as a sign of elevated interest rates weighing further on overall demand as the pandemic fiscal supports wane. … READ MORE >
Forecasts show softer April PCE inflation
We think the top-line PCE inflation will most likely come in at 0.25% for April, down from 0.30% in March, while the core index will slow to 0.26% from 0.30%. … READ MORE >
American consumers continue to spend despite sticky inflation
Spending remained strong in March on the heels of robust income growth despite sticky inflation, according to Commerce Department released on Friday. … READ MORE >
U.S. spending and inflation improve above expectations
Spending rose by 0.8% on the month, compared with the forecast of 0.5%, while the personal consumption expenditures index—an inflation measure closely watched by the Federal Reserve—came in at 0.3%. … READ MORE >
Low core inflation should keep the Fed from hiking rates
While we expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, what its updated Summary of Economic Projections will look like remains less clear. … READ MORE >
Spending and inflation cool in May
Inflation continued to decelerate in May as the Federal Reserve’s key pricing metric—the personal consumption expenditures index—grew by only 3.8% from a year ago, the lowest level in more than two years. … READ MORE >
U.S. economy was a lot stronger in first quarter, final GDP estimate shows
The third and final estimate of gross domestic product showed a drastic upward revision to a 2.0% gain from 1.3% on a quarterly and annualized basis. … READ MORE >