American spending moderated in April as U.S. businesses pulled back significantly on imports after months of pulling forward economic activity to avoid higher tariffs. … READ MORE >
personal consumption expenditures index
U.S. households pull forward spending as PCE inflation remains sticky
Households are preparing for what they believe will be another price shock caused by an increase in the costs of goods through a policy-induced trade shock. … READ MORE >
January PCE index: Strong income gains amid elevated inflation
Underlying inflation appears to have flattened out near 2.5% on an annual basis with service sector costs rising at a 3.4% rate. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Is the fight against PCE inflation like waiting for Godot?
The January PCE inflation report, to be released Friday, will most likely show a 0.3% top-line increase on the month and a 2.5% increase from one year ago. … READ MORE >
U.S. households show robust gains on spending and income
Robust income and spending gains continue to underscore a strong economy that is benefiting not only from real income gains but also from rising equity and home prices. … READ MORE >
Stubborn inflation not stopping the U.S. consumer from spending
Personal income increased by 0.3%, personal spending by 0.4% and real spending by 0.3% as households used robust gains in disposable income. … READ MORE >
Morning market minute: The Fed’s terminal rate estimate needs to be lifted
We expect that the Federal Reserve will lift its estimate of the terminal rate to 3% this week. … READ MORE >
Inflation proving stubborn as major policy changes await
given the looming fiscal and trade policy changes, it is growing more likely that the central bank will pause its rate-cutting campaign to ascertain their impact on the economy. … READ MORE >
Strong gains in Income and spending boost economic growth in September
American households are well positioned to keep spending at a 3% to 3.5% pace as inflation moves back to 2% and real wages continue to increase. … READ MORE >
Fed’s key inflation gauge shows price stability as consumers hit the accelerator
The American economy is poised to grow at or above the long-term 1.8% rate as the Fed begins its rate-cutting campaign, which should put a floor under growth and hiring. … READ MORE >