The common thread between the inflation reports for January was a reacceleration in service-based inflation that is proving sticky and is not likely to abate enough for the Federal Reserve to pull back on interest rate increases. For this reason, we are changing our call on the path of monetary ... READ MORE >
personal consumption expenditures
American consumers grow more cautious as spending falls
American consumers pulled back on their spending for the second month in a row in December amid a continuing economic slowdown and elevated inflation. Also contributing to the decline were weak income growth and the decreasing stock of excess savings. Spending fell by 0.2% in dollar terms and by 0.3% ... READ MORE >
Spending holds strong as inflation moderates in October
Overall demand remained robust as holiday shopping kicked off in October, according to data on inflation, spending and income from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Thursday. Spending rose by 0.8% while income increased by 0.7%. After adjusting for inflation, real spending rose by 0.5% ... READ MORE >
U.S. October CPI: Inflation still high, but relief on the horizon
Inflation in the U.S. economy is approaching an inflection point where the central bank can begin considering a pause in its efforts to restore price stability and households can begin seeing possible relief from a deterioration in real income. The October consumer price index, which rose by 0.4% ... READ MORE >
Spending grows, even with higher-than-expected inflation
Despite a sharp drop in energy prices, August's personal consumption expenditures price index—the Federal Reserve's key gauge for inflation—rose by 0.3% after falling by 0.1% in July. The price increases ate into spending, bringing spending growth from a 0.4% increase in dollar terms to only a 0.1% ... READ MORE >
How high must unemployment rise to tame inflation?
Restoring price stability is now the paramount policy goal at the Federal Reserve. Chairman Jerome Powell went out of his way on Friday to point out the lessons of the high inflation in the 1970s and 1980s, and the sacrifice it took to wring it out of the economy after years of delays. "Our aim is to ... READ MORE >
Spending remains steady on strong income growth and inflation relief
U.S. personal income and spending in July signaled a gradual rebound of the economy in the third quarter after six months of declines in gross domestic product. The catalyst was a combination of a tight labor market with steady wage income growth and a sharp drop in inflation on the back of falling ... READ MORE >
American spending and income eroded by multi-decade high inflation
American consumer spending barely kept up with price gains in June as the Federal Reserve's key inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index—reached a new multi-decade high, according to government data released Friday. Additionally, personal income declined for the first time since ... READ MORE >
Inflation outpaces consumer spending for the first time this year
Personal spending declined on an inflation-adjusted basis in May as spikes in gasoline and food prices depressed consumer sentiment and dampened spending on other discretionary items. If the trend continues, we should expect spending volume in June to decline further, adding more downside risks to our ... READ MORE >
Personal spending and trade improved in April as inflation eased
American consumers continued to spend more in April as inflation showed signs of relief. The combination of higher incomes, excess savings and lower energy prices helped to alleviate some of the recent recession concerns. On top of that, the advanced goods trade deficit improved significantly on ... READ MORE >