August’s data on spending and inflation should put an end to the debate on whether the economy has achieved a soft landing and avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, dropped to 2.2% on a year-ago basis, the lowest since ... READ MORE >
personal income
Fed’s key inflation gauge shows price stability as consumers hit the accelerator
Disinflation, strong household consumption and incomes rising above the rate of inflation continue to be the defining narrative of the U.S. economy as it heads into the second half of the year. With the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, ... READ MORE >
January inflation and spending data implies more noise than trend
The Federal Reserve's closely watched measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, continued to show strength in January, rising by 0.3% on the month and by 2.4% from a year ago. We are not too worried about the strong inflation print because of all the seasonal factors involved. ... READ MORE >
U.S. income and spending see strong gains as year nears an end
This past year was a remarkable one in the American economy as inflation eased, employment gains remained rock solid and household consumption advanced at a robust pace. November’s personal income and spending report, released by the Commerce Department on Friday, showed a 0.4% monthly increase in ... READ MORE >
Spending stayed robust in September as inflation steadied
The U.S. economy maintained its momentum in September with personal spending that was stronger than forecasted. But even with the booming consumer demand, inflation ticked up only slightly, driven largely by energy and travel service prices. Spending rose by 0.7% on the month, while the personal ... READ MORE >
Key gauges of prices and labor rise, affirming likelihood of rate hikes
Two of the Federal Reserve's closely watched gauges for prices and labor costs released on Friday reaffirmed expectations that the central bank will begin raising interest rates in March as the Fed moves to tame inflation. The personal consumption expenditures deflator, the Fed's official indicator for ... READ MORE >
Personal income, spending and savings are getting back to normal
Households are spending more and savings less, enjoying their summer and getting ready for school, government data released on Friday suggests. In short, households are getting back to normal. But whether that’s sustainable will probably be determined by somehow convincing all Americans to get a ... READ MORE >
U.S. personal income and savings: Households are building impressive cash positions
Americans’ personal income increased by 0.6% in December, driving their savings positions higher. The gains, reported by the Commerce Department on Friday, are creating the conditions for what we believe will be a consumer-led boom in the second half of the year. While spending to end 2020 was ... READ MORE >