August’s data on spending and inflation should put an end to the debate on whether the economy has achieved a soft landing and avoided a recession. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, dropped to 2.2% on a year-ago basis, the lowest since ... READ MORE >
Personal spending
American economy grew by 2.8% in second quarter, exceeding forecasts
The U.S. economy advanced at a 2.8% pace in the second quarter, exceeding RSM’s forecast of 2.4%, and was up by 3.1% on a year-ago basis. For the first half of the year, average growth was 2.1%, which should put to rest any arguments that the economy is about to fall off a cliff. Perhaps more ... READ MORE >
January inflation and spending data implies more noise than trend
The Federal Reserve's closely watched measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, continued to show strength in January, rising by 0.3% on the month and by 2.4% from a year ago. We are not too worried about the strong inflation print because of all the seasonal factors involved. ... READ MORE >
American consumers remain resilient as shutdown looms
Despite a rise in overall inflation because of higher oil prices, core inflation and spending volume were softer in August, adding to the optimism projected by the Federal Reserve recently that the economy can achieve a soft landing. The personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed's preferred ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key gauges of inflation soften in February
Key inflation, spending and income data released on Friday should make the Federal Reserve's so-called dovish rate hike of 25 basis points in March a lot more reasonable by now. It also reaffirmed our call that the end of the hiking cycle is only a couple of months away. While the data ... READ MORE >
Inflation outpaces consumer spending for the first time this year
Personal spending declined on an inflation-adjusted basis in May as spikes in gasoline and food prices depressed consumer sentiment and dampened spending on other discretionary items. If the trend continues, we should expect spending volume in June to decline further, adding more downside risks to our ... READ MORE >
Personal spending and trade improved in April as inflation eased
American consumers continued to spend more in April as inflation showed signs of relief. The combination of higher incomes, excess savings and lower energy prices helped to alleviate some of the recent recession concerns. On top of that, the advanced goods trade deficit improved significantly on ... READ MORE >