The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, final demand inflation was unchanged in September, while the core reading grew more slowly ... READ MORE >
producer price index
Producer inflation and initial jobless claims stabilize further
While the producer price index came out slightly higher than forecasted at 0.3% on the month and 1.7% on a year-ago basis on Thursday, it remained on a moderating trend with July’s number being revised down. For 18 consecutive months, producer inflation has been in the 2% range or below on a year-ago ... READ MORE >
Producer prices grow slower than expected, adding evidence to support rate cut
A drop in July’s producer inflation suggests another month of favorable inflation data that should help seal the deal for a rate cut in September and more afterwards. The final demand inflation rose 0.1% in July and 2.2% from a year ago. Even better, the core component of the producer inflation number ... READ MORE >
PCE inflation preview: From noise to norm, rate cuts are on the horizon
Following the release of the consumer price index and producer price index this week, we are now forecasting a 0.084% increase in the May personal consumption expenditures index, translating to a 2.6% increase on a year-over-year basis. This will appear in the forecast table as a 0.10% estimate. But we ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims jump as inflation continues to improve
Initial jobless claims jumped to 242,000 for the week ending June 8 from 229,000 the week before, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The latest figure was the highest level in almost a year, nearing the threshold of 250,000 that in our view signals conditions for a possible recession. It ... READ MORE >
Producer price offers mixed result ahead of CPI release
The producer price index increased by 0.5% in April, above estimates, as both goods and services prices accelerated, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Tuesday. The increase, however, was offset by a downward revision to March’s number, from a 0.2% increase to a 0.1% decline. That ... READ MORE >
August retail sales and producer inflation show a hot summer finish
The U.S. economy ran hotter than expected in August even as the momentum in spending slowed down. Retail sales and producer inflation came in significantly higher than forecast, while initial jobless claims were lower than the market consensus. But the downward revisions to retail sales in the prior ... READ MORE >
Producer prices, consumer sentiment data show signs of more price stability
Producer price data and consumer sentiment data released Friday showed signs of more price stability, and this good news on the inflation front should keep the economy on track to grow in the third quarter. The producer price index was up 0.3% in July after June's downward revision, according to the ... READ MORE >
Job and producer inflation data raises soft-landing hope
Data on jobless claims and producer inflation came in lower than forecast on Thursday, giving mixed signals on the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. The Fed is heading toward a pivotal period when disinflation and a still-resilient economy are giving more hope on the probability of a soft ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer inflation show mixed results
Initial jobless claims rose by 9.1% for the week ending May 6, to 264,000, the most since 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The rise came as the Labor Department also reported the producer prices bounced back in April, in part because of favorable comparisons to surging prices of ... READ MORE >