Following the release of the consumer price index and producer price index this week, we are now forecasting a 0.084% increase in the May personal consumption expenditures index, translating to a 2.6% increase on a year-over-year basis. This will appear in the forecast table as a 0.10% estimate. But we ... READ MORE >
producer price index
Initial jobless claims jump as inflation continues to improve
Initial jobless claims jumped to 242,000 for the week ending June 8 from 229,000 the week before, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The latest figure was the highest level in almost a year, nearing the threshold of 250,000 that in our view signals conditions for a possible recession. It ... READ MORE >
Producer price offers mixed result ahead of CPI release
The producer price index increased by 0.5% in April, above estimates, as both goods and services prices accelerated, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data released on Tuesday. The increase, however, was offset by a downward revision to March’s number, from a 0.2% increase to a 0.1% decline. That ... READ MORE >
August retail sales and producer inflation show a hot summer finish
The U.S. economy ran hotter than expected in August even as the momentum in spending slowed down. Retail sales and producer inflation came in significantly higher than forecast, while initial jobless claims were lower than the market consensus. But the downward revisions to retail sales in the prior ... READ MORE >
Producer prices, consumer sentiment data show signs of more price stability
Producer price data and consumer sentiment data released Friday showed signs of more price stability, and this good news on the inflation front should keep the economy on track to grow in the third quarter. The producer price index was up 0.3% in July after June's downward revision, according to the ... READ MORE >
Job and producer inflation data raises soft-landing hope
Data on jobless claims and producer inflation came in lower than forecast on Thursday, giving mixed signals on the Federal Reserve's rate trajectory. The Fed is heading toward a pivotal period when disinflation and a still-resilient economy are giving more hope on the probability of a soft ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer inflation show mixed results
Initial jobless claims rose by 9.1% for the week ending May 6, to 264,000, the most since 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The rise came as the Labor Department also reported the producer prices bounced back in April, in part because of favorable comparisons to surging prices of ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer prices point to a further slowdown
New data on the labor market and inflation released on Thursday continued to show a slowing economy as it heads to a likely recession. For the Federal Reserve, that data bolstered the case that it will pause its rate increases after one final hike in this cycle on May 3. Whether to have that ... READ MORE >
Retail sales and producer inflation fell in February
Retail sales dropped in February after surging in January, while producer inflation fell unexpectedly on the month, signaling easing demand pressures. Still, looking underneath the top-line numbers and through seasonal fluctuations, spending at retail stores remained solid. Wednesday’s ... READ MORE >
Jobs and inflation data show a still-strong economy
Both producer inflation and jobless claims came in stronger than expected in the most recent government reports released on Thursday. The data adds further pressure on the Federal Reserve as it aims to steer the economy toward a soft landing. With strong data accumulating, current conditions ... READ MORE >