The K-shaped economy that has defined the U.S. in the post-pandemic era is predicated on upper-income groups continuing to spend at a strong clip. … READ MORE >
recession
Bank of Canada holds interest rate amid economic resilience, trade tensions
The Bank of Canada held its key interest rate at 2.75 per cent amid Canada’s overall economic resilience and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. … READ MORE >
Simultaneous shocks to tip economy into recession in current quarter
We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
Despite the labor market’s resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since late last year are ringing alarm bells. … READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push a recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase. … READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index: Debt ceiling standoff to cause volatility
As of Friday, our composite RSM US Financial Conditions Index remained at 0.9 standard deviations below neutral, corresponding to higher levels of risk than would normally be priced into securities. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims drop as fraud claims are resolved
New filings for jobless benefits fell last week to 242,000 from 264,000, a sharp 8.3% drop, in part because of the resolution of fraudulent claims in Massachusetts. … READ MORE >
About that recession: Resilience now, risks ahead
Despite elevated inflation and interest rates, as well as tightening financial conditions and softening demand for loans, the economy has chugged along, thanks in no small part to strong consumer spending. … READ MORE >
Fed survey shows a notable decline in loan demand
Roughly 56% of loan officers noted a decline in demand for loans by large and middle market firms, while 53% reported a decline in credit demand by small firms, according to the Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released Monday. … READ MORE >
Economic headwinds and your business: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
Brusuelas and Bradley will examine the changing landscape of risk and offer insights into how businesses can adapt. … READ MORE >