The United States economy appears to be approaching a recession, as recent jobless claims data—a reliable precursor to the end of a business cycle—portends. Despite the labor market's resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since ... READ MORE >
recession
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push the long-awaited recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase last week, government data released on Thursday ... READ MORE >
RSM US Financial Conditions Index: Debt ceiling standoff to cause volatility
U.S. financial conditions remain a drag on overall economic activity. Our composite RSM US Financial Conditions Index remained at 0.9 standard deviations below neutral on Friday, corresponding to higher levels of risk than would normally be priced into securities. As investors await a ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims drop as fraud claims are resolved
New filings for jobless benefits fell last week to 242,000 from 264,000, a sharp 8.3% drop, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. The fall off came after fraudulent claims in Massachusetts—which were confirmed by state officials—had inflated the top-line number in the prior weeks. On a ... READ MORE >
About that recession: Resilience now, risks ahead
We have made the case for some time that the “R” word that best describes the American real economy is resilience, not recession. Despite elevated inflation and interest rates, as well as tightening financial conditions and softening demand for loans, the economy has chugged along, thanks ... READ MORE >
Fed survey shows a notable decline in loan demand
Further evidence of tightened lending conditions and a potential credit crunch can be seen in the notable decline in demand for credit by large and middle market firms, a new survey of loan officers from the Federal Reserve shows. This decline will affect the real economy in the near term ... READ MORE >
Economic headwinds and your business: A webinar from RSM US and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce
American middle market businesses are facing a rapidly changing economic and political landscape, from raising the nation's debt ceiling to tightening credit conditions and persistent inflation. How to make sense of it all? Join RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas and U.S. Chamber of ... READ MORE >
Canada added 41,400 jobs in April amid resilient labor market
Canada’s labor market remained resilient in April despite increasing recession fears. All key numbers released by Statistics Canada on Friday came in stronger than expected—maybe too strong for the Bank of Canada’s comfort as it tries to tame inflation. The jobs report should raise the chance of a rate ... READ MORE >
Hiring in U.S. remains robust in April as the jobless rate falls to 3.4%
We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the ... READ MORE >
Job openings fell in March as the labor market softened
Job openings fell to 9.6 million in March from almost 10 million in February, a clear sign that the labor market is softening as the economy slows down. Still, there were 1.6 openings available for each unemployed worker on the month, down only slightly from 1.7 in February, according to data ... READ MORE >