While robust July retail sales numbers might come as a surprise given the various pressures on American consumers, the data was very well in line with our forecasts ahead of the Thursday data release from the Commerce Department. Further disinflation and 15 consecutive months of positive real wage growth ... READ MORE >
retail sales
Strong employment enables consumers to maintain spending
Strong employment has sustained consumer spending levels, Commerce Department data for June released on Tuesday shows. Retail sales rose 0.3% to 0.4% in the month, after adjusting for inflation, driven by robust employment despite consumers’ depleted savings and high interest rates. As retailers look ... READ MORE >
Retail sales and industrial production point to a strong end of the year
Resilience not recession is the right "R" word to describe the American economy in December. Wednesday's data from the Commerce Department showed retail sales blowing past expectations while industrial production volume stayed solid. The upside surprises, together with a robust labor market, prompted ... READ MORE >
July retail sales show upside surprise, helped by discounting and back-to-school events: RSM analyst perspective
Retail sales rose 0.7% in July from the prior month, beating analysts’ expectations for a 0.4% rise, likely driven by a series of July discount events at major retailers and the start of back-to-school shopping. The rise marked the fourth consecutive month of increases. Stripping out spending on gas, ... READ MORE >
Robust retail sales data in July raises Q3 GDP forecast
American consumers continued to show a robust spending appetite in July as sales from retail and food services came in much hotter than expected. Total sales rose 0.7% on the month, much higher than the 0.4% forecasted and was the fourth consecutive increase since April. The control group, which ... READ MORE >
Mixed signals from retail sales and industrial production data ahead of Fed meeting
Underlying retail sales showed a strong increase in June while industrial production posted another sharp drop, giving mixed signals on the health of the economy heading toward a pivotal period for rate hike decisions. Both data points, released by the government on Tuesday, are key factors ... READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push the long-awaited recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase last week, government data released on Thursday ... READ MORE >
Have consumers maxed out their spending?
Ominous economic conditions fueled by debt ceiling uncertainty and sticky inflation are taking a toll on consumer confidence while compelling consumer products companies to build resilience in pursuit of profitability. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment in May fell to 57.7 from ... READ MORE >
Lower-than-expected retail sales raise recession probability
Retail sales dropped for the second month in a row in March as demand for goods and food services continued to ease, suggesting the end of the business cycle. If interest rate increases take six to 12 months to be felt in the economy—the accepted wisdom before the pandemic—then it is likely ... READ MORE >
Retail sales fall more than expected as spending and inflation cool
Retail sales in November posted the sharpest decline of the year, falling by 0.6% as shoppers pulled back from holiday spending, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. Early shopping in October and falling prices were important factors that contributed to the pullback, which exceeded analysts' ... READ MORE >