John Maynard Keynes’ paradox of thrift is increasingly becoming a much larger part of the economic narrative in the United States as households prepare for an extended economic slowdown, elevated unemployment and loss of income. During March, the U.S. savings rate jumped to 13.1%, which did not bolster ... READ MORE >
retail sales
Amid chaos of coronavirus, food and beverage sector continues to adapt
The retail sales figures released this week painted a grim picture of consumer spending and the state of the economy amid the mounting human and economic toll of the coronavirus. But a deeper look at the data reveals some profound changes taking place that will most likely endure once the pandemic ... READ MORE >
Retail sales declined 8.7% in March, with more distress to come
The condition of the American consumer is impaired and will be for some time. The combination of soaring unemployment and shelter-in-place policies across the economy sent U.S. retail sales down 8.7% in March. The core ex-autos number declined by 4.5%, while the ex-gasoline metric dropped by 8%, all of ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales declined in February amid coronavirus uncertainty
Consumers pulled back across the board on spending in February as the onset of the coronavirus began to shape household expectations about the economy and society. Top-line sales declined by 0.5% while the control group that feeds into the estimation of gross domestic product was flat on the month. ... READ MORE >
Retail sales close out year on a positive note
The health of the American consumer remains strong as outlays on retail sales closed out the year on a positive note with plenty of room for upward revisions. U.S. December advance retail sales increased 0.3% on a month-over-month basis and was up 6% on a year-ago basis. The control group that is used ... READ MORE >
November retail sales not full of holiday cheer
The traditional holiday sales did not get off a robust start in November, which was most likely because of a late Thanksgiving holiday that pushed some spending into December. After peaking in mid-2019, overall retail sales will need to pick up in December to support growth anywhere near 2% in the current ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales grew at a healthy 0.3% in October
The U.S. household continues to demonstrate strength through domestic retail sales, though at a decelerating pace. The October increase of 0.3 percent in top-line retail sales and the control estimate that feeds into the calculation of domestic gross domestic product reaffirm that the consumer remains on ... READ MORE >
US data deluge: cold cup of coffee on a sunny summer day
This morning’s data deluge provided a perfect snapshot of the U.S. economy at the current time. A robust consumer, driven by strong real compensation in the first quarter of the year, continued to prop up the American economy, even as the domestic manufacturing sector contracted by 0.5% on a year-ago ... READ MORE >
U.S. February retail sales point to weak Q1 household spending
Soft top-line and underlying core retail sales in February point to persistent weak household spending in the first quarter of the year. While retail sales make up roughly 23 percent of household spending, we are certain that if personal spending in February and March does not surge at least 0.5 percent ... READ MORE >