As firms and households await the expected increase in import taxes through a flurry of executive orders over the next several days, it is important to note just how challenging it will be to estimate their impact on growth, employment and inflation. Modeling such a shock to the economy depends upon ... READ MORE >
tariffs
Morning market minute: How tariffs fall harder on lower-income households
Economic inequality in the United States has been a fact of life for decades. And the tariffs that President-elect Donald Trump is proposing will fall squarely on the shoulders of U.S. households, particularly those with lower incomes. Read RSM's global economic outlook in the latest issue of The ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Emerging market currencies at risk of depreciation
Since early October, emerging market currencies have been depreciating against the U.S. dollar. Differentials in growth, interest rates and expectations on policy changes by the Trump administration are all contributing to the decline. Whether the depreciation is taking place in economies that have ... READ MORE >
Tariffs would fray Canada-U.S. ties in energy and auto manufacturing
A blanket tariff by the U.S. on Canadian imports is unlikely to materialize early next year despite rhetoric from U.S. president-elect Donald Trump. Still, the mere prospect of new tariffs has caused considerable anxiety in Canada. Such a move would have dire economic implications on both ... READ MORE >
Tariff discussions in health care and life sciences industries stoke global supply chain concerns
The health care and life sciences industries could be facing significant changes under a second Trump administration. From the prospect of new tariffs to the likelihood that the BIOSECURE Act will be enacted, companies are scrambling to adjust to what could be a changed operating ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Firms to pull forward durable goods orders to avoid tariffs
Inside the University of Michigan’s survey on consumer sentiment for November, buying conditions for durable goods increased by more than 20%. Firms appear to be acting rationally to avoid rising import taxes in the new year. These purchases will bolster gross domestic product in the fourth quarter, ... READ MORE >
Trump tariff losers index: Manufacturing, metals, petroleum and many more
The declaration by President-elect Trump that he intends to place a 10% tariff on all imports from China and a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico is another sign that firms, investors and policymakers should prepare for more supply chain stress. In particular, automakers and their ... READ MORE >
China’s economic challenge: Elevated external debt and its dirty float
In the year ahead, trade tensions between the United States and China are likely to spill over into a trade skirmish at best and trade conflict at worst. A Chinese economy caught in a debt and deleveraging trap is likely to face the additional strain of a sharp increase in tariffs on goods sold into ... READ MORE >
Higher tariffs are likely coming; consumer businesses should prepare
As consumer products companies look to a new Trump administration, higher tariffs are most likely on the way. Businesses that prepare now, even as they wait for the tariffs to take shape, will be better positioned to maximize their margins. For example, businesses can adjust to smaller tariffs through ... READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
Since the American economy emerged from the shocks of the pandemic, we have made the case that it is undergoing a fundamental structural change. The end of historically low interest rates, the adoption of policies aimed at bolstering vital national industries and the influx of foreign capital have all ... READ MORE >