The Federal Reserve is on the verge of achieving that rarest of economic feats: A soft landing. The rapid disinflation that the Fed has engineered over the past two years mirrors that of the 1990s—the last time the central bank achieved such a difficult feat. That disinflation set the stage for a ... READ MORE >
tariffs
The new mercantilism: Tariffs and currency manipulation in an era of U.S.-China tensions
After decades of growing trade and current account imbalances in the United States, the new administration has set out to change this equation with nothing less than a rebalancing of the global economy. Today, a new mercantilism, rooted in tariffs and trade protection, is emerging. We define ... READ MORE >
The impact of tariffs: Balancing costs, supply chain and profitability
Raising tariffs can drive up consumer prices, lower demand and hurt business profitability. Unless market forces are considered when employing tariffs, these negatives may occur without also achieving the desired benefit of a shift from foreign to domestic production. As tariffs rise, imported goods ... READ MORE >
Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs turn uncertainty into concern for Canada
It took less than a week for the uneasy pause in trade tensions between Canada and the U.S. to reignite after U.S. President Donald Trump announced steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. The 25 per cent tariff, which is set to take effect on March 12, includes products from Canada — the largest ... READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate falls to 6.6% as business sentiment improves
Canada’s economic resurgence appears well under way. The economy added 76,000 jobs in January, the employment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 61.1 per cent and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 6.6 per cent. The unemployment rate fell back to a level last seen in October 2024—and ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Trucking firms at risk amid trade tensions
As trade tensions have mounted in recent weeks, most of the focus has been on agriculture, autos and aviation, three industries that rely on integrated supply chains involving Mexico, Canada and China. Yet one area that should not be overlooked is trucking and transportation, which would take a hit ... READ MORE >
Even with pause, Trump’s tariffs and Canada’s response establish volatile new economic reality
Editor's note: This article has been updated following news of the pause in implementing tariffs. After a weekend that saw U.S. President Donald Trump impose steep tariffs on Canadian goods and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau put forward retaliatory measures, the widely feared tariff war appears on hold ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: Tariffs and the rising dollar
Investor expectations of a new round of tariffs have caused the U.S. dollar to mildly appreciate in recent months. Now, with steep tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China set to begin Tuesday, one should expect the greenback to go even higher against major trading currencies. Such a move will ... READ MORE >
How an escalating trade war will affect global growth, inflation and employment
The United States has announced steep tariffs on goods made in Canada, Mexico and China starting on Tuesday. Even though Canada and Mexico have promised retaliation, we anticipate that the disputes with those two nations will be resolved in the near term, though the standoff with China will last ... READ MORE >
Morning market minute: What guacamole tells us about the cost of tariffs
It’s well known that the average auto part crosses the border between the United States and Mexico several times. Same with Canada. So with 25% tariffs on all goods coming into the U.S. from Canada and Mexico set to begin on Tuesday, new cars are about to get a lot more expensive—anywhere from $3,000 ... READ MORE >