Fixed-income investors are sniffing out the logic of economic populism amid a move toward trade protectionism, which strongly implies higher inflation and rising long-term yields. … READ MORE >
tariffs
In April CPI report, scant evidence of tariff-induced inflation
We think it probable that the pervasive uncertainty around trade policy caused businesses to simply remain in place until they had more information about the tariffs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Canada’s trade diversification away from U.S. as tariff pain remains
Canada’s latest trade data provides an indicator of the diversification away from U.S. dollar-denominated assets as tariff tensions continue to simmer between the longtime trade partners. In March, Canada’s merchandise exports to countries other than the U.S. surged by 24.8 per cent on a month-over-month basis—the second-largest increase in recorded … … READ MORE >
With trade truce, U.S. and China avoid a decoupling, but devil is in the details
The bottom line is that American firms can now prepare for a significant increase in the cost of imports, which will then be passed along to consumers. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: CPI will start to reflect tariffs, especially in used autos
The April consumer price index will provide insight in the early days of the current trade conflict when it is released Wednesday as signs of rising prices for apparel, autos, shoes and toys will begin to appear. … READ MORE >
Canada’s unemployment rate rises as U.S. tariffs strain key industries
Canada’s latest jobs report showcased the impact of U.S. tariffs as key industries saw high job losses while the overall unemployment rate rose. … READ MORE >
The U.S.-UK trade agreement that isn’t
A trade agreement where the details are still being negotiated is not an agreement. It’s a memorandum of understanding that over time may yield a productive framework for trade or not. … READ MORE >
Fed maintains rates but signals risk of stagflation
The Federal Open Market Committee held its policy rate steady in a range between 4.25% and 4.5% on Wednesday. But the Fed updated its policy statement in which it highlighted the risk of stagflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Oil prices are falling, so why not gas?
Since hitting $80 a barrel on Jan. 15, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude has fallen by nearly 30%, hitting $56.69 on May 5. Retail gasoline prices, meanwhile, have risen slightly. … READ MORE >
Service providers saw a jump in prices in April
The top-line ISM service sector index rose to 51.6 from 50.8, while the prices paid subindex rose to 65.1 from 60.9. … READ MORE >