While it is highly likely that U.S. inflation peaked in May, one should not anticipate a return to pre-war levels of inflation any time soon. … READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Surging equities and the trickle-up economy
We estimate that every dollar of stock market gains generates less than a penny of consumer spending—roughly 0.8 cents … READ MORE >
Job openings rise to a two-year high
The sharp increase in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics followed disappointing results in February and March. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing advanced at fastest pace in four years, ISM data shows
The manufacturing sector continued its recent run in May, growing significantly for the fifth consecutive month on the back of tariffs and the AI buildout, according data from the Institute for Supply Management. Demand was particularly strong in May, buoyed in part by the prospect of a resolution of the … … READ MORE >
Consumers are hanging on—for now
Retail sales slowed sharply to a 0.5% increase from March’s 1.6% surge, but the underlying details were better than expected. … READ MORE >
RSM’s Brusuelas and Nguyen again named among top forecasters
Brusuelas and Nguyen were rated fifth by Bloomberg in the overall accuracy of their economics forecasts for the first quarter of 2026, continuing their run among the elite forecasters. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales exceed estimates, lifted by strong demand
The U.S. retail sales report released on Tuesday was a strong one by any measure. Twelve of thirteen categories rose, the most in months. … READ MORE >
Producer inflation rises less than forecast
March producer prices rose by 0.5%, driven largely by energy costs. Oil prices have eased since, but supply disruptions are unlikely to fade anytime soon. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: RSM GDP Nowcast showing 4.5% growth in first quarter
We can be confident that the rebound in government spending following the extended shutdown last fall will add about 1 to 1.5 percentage points to overall GDP growth. … READ MORE >
Major economic indicators point to stronger growth
The impact of AI investment and the easing of tariff concerns showed up across much of the data. … READ MORE >