The employment index turned positive for the first time in a long time, suggesting the momentum is not going away anytime soon. … READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Retail sales rise in June on the back of falling gas prices
Topline retail sales rose 0.2% on a nominal dollar basis even as spending at the pump fell a sharp 5.3%. … READ MORE >
U.S. records deflation for the first time since 2020
Core CPI was unchanged in June as many other categories in the inflation report also showed falling prices, including used cars, education, apparel and commodities. … READ MORE >
Inflation peaked in May—but return to pre-war levels not coming soon
While it is highly likely that U.S. inflation peaked in May, one should not anticipate a return to pre-war levels of inflation any time soon. … READ MORE >
Surging equities and the trickle-up economy
We estimate that every dollar of stock market gains generates less than a penny of consumer spending—roughly 0.8 cents … READ MORE >
Job openings rise to a two-year high
The sharp increase in the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics followed disappointing results in February and March. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing advanced at fastest pace in four years, ISM data shows
The manufacturing sector continued its recent run in May, growing significantly for the fifth consecutive month on the back of tariffs and the AI buildout, according data from the Institute for Supply Management. Demand was particularly strong in May, buoyed in part by the prospect of a resolution of the … … READ MORE >
Consumers are hanging on—for now
Retail sales slowed sharply to a 0.5% increase from March’s 1.6% surge, but the underlying details were better than expected. … READ MORE >
RSM’s Brusuelas and Nguyen again named among top forecasters
Brusuelas and Nguyen were rated fifth by Bloomberg in the overall accuracy of their economics forecasts for the first quarter of 2026, continuing their run among the elite forecasters. … READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales exceed estimates, lifted by strong demand
The U.S. retail sales report released on Tuesday was a strong one by any measure. Twelve of thirteen categories rose, the most in months. … READ MORE >