Government data for October's retail sales and producer inflation has raised the probability of a soft landing by a significant margin. While sales slowed, the data came in higher than expected. When considered with an upward revision to September's reading, October's retail sales indicated ... READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Consumer sentiment falls to lowest level since May
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index dropped unexpectedly in November to the lowest level since May as inflation concerns mounted. But the market and the Federal Reserve should be able to look through those surprises that were largely a short-lived reaction to elevated gasoline ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims ease amid broader signs of a softening labor market
Even as initial jobless claims have stayed relatively steady recently despite major strikes, there are longer-term signs that the labor market is softening. New filings for jobless claims inched down by 3,000 to 217,000 last week, up from 200,000 last month. But continuing claims—a measure of ... READ MORE >
Credit sentiment improves in Q3, signaling the worst might be over
No surprise came from the third-quarter Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Monday as most major indicators pointed to improvement in lending sentiment. The improvement was likely a direct result of the Federal Reserve's rate pause in September as the central bank began to rebalance its policy to a less ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims edge up as labor market remains strong
New claims for jobless benefits rose to 217,000 last week, yet they remained below the pre-pandemic level where they have been since September, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. So far, new jobless claims, which increased by a modest 5,000, have stayed remarkably resilient as the labor market ... READ MORE >
Job openings top estimates amid sharp drop in manufacturing
Job openings edged up in September as labor demand remained strong, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday. The manufacturing sector, according to a separate report from the Institute for Supply Management, declined at a faster rate than expected on falling employment and new ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key wage inflation metric tops forecast
The employment cost index has been the Federal Reserve's top indicator for wage pressure on underlying inflation recently. That figure for the third quarter showed that labor costs rose 1.1% higher than the forecast of 1.0% and were higher than the pre-pandemic average of 0.6%. The hotter-than-expected ... READ MORE >
Spending stayed robust in September as inflation steadied
The U.S. economy maintained its momentum in September with personal spending that was stronger than forecasted. But even with the booming consumer demand, inflation ticked up only slightly, driven largely by energy and travel service prices. Spending rose by 0.7% on the month, while the personal ... READ MORE >
Existing home sales fall to the lowest level since 2010
Existing home sales fell in September to the lowest level since 2010 as mortgage rates hit a multidecade high. Even if the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in the next two months, the lagged impact of monetary tightening, especially quantitative tightening, has continued to put pressure on ... READ MORE >
Retail sales top forecasts as American consumers stay resilient
U.S. retail sales surged above expectations in September, ending a robust quarter with a bang and raising the possibility that gross domestic product for the third quarter will be higher than expected. Fueled by a healthy level of excess savings--which is around $400 billion in our recent estimate—and ... READ MORE >