September's producer inflation topped forecasts as energy prices continued to rise. The data continued to suggest that strong economic activity carried over from the summer, in line with our forecast of a 3.1% growth in gross domestic product for the third quarter. Looking ahead, though, as economic ... READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Excess savings are critical to the economic expansion’s duration
The American economy has shown resilience in the face of rising interest rates as consumers, bolstered by excess savings built up during the pandemic, have continued to spend. But how long can these savings last? According to our analysis of revised data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims tick up in a still-tight labor market
Initial claims inched up last week as the impact of the United Auto Workers strike remained muted. New filings increased by 2,000 to 207,000 for the week ending Sept. 30, lower than the median forecasts of 210,000, according to Labor Department data released Thursday. That continued to suggest a ... READ MORE >
Service sector extends growth in September
The service sector posted another steady month of growth in September as business activities rose at the fastest rate in three months, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Wednesday. Except for last December, the sector has expanded in 39 of the past 40 months, a key support for the economic ... READ MORE >
Job openings surge unexpectedly in August
Job openings defied expectations in August, rising to 9.6 million, mostly from a sharp increase of 409,000 in professional and business services, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the increase in labor demand was an encouraging sign for the labor market, we ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing sentiment improves for the first time in nearly a year
The manufacturing sector in September expanded for the first time in 10 months on the heels of the strongest production growth since last summer, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Monday. We believe the sector has passed its bottom and is on an upward trend, given the tailwinds of higher ... READ MORE >
American consumers remain resilient as shutdown looms
Despite a rise in overall inflation because of higher oil prices, core inflation and spending volume were softer in August, adding to the optimism projected by the Federal Reserve recently that the economy can achieve a soft landing. The personal consumption expenditures price index—the Fed's preferred ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims hold steady as pending home sales plunge
The labor market continued to show resilience even as higher interest rates took a further toll on pending home sales. Initial jobless claims inched up by only 2,000 last week to 204,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic average, while pending home sales plunged by 7.1% in August after July's number ... READ MORE >
Business equipment spending rebounds
Business orders for equipment rebounded in August after falling for two straight months, an encouraging sign for American businesses, which should look through the current economic headwinds to prepare for a soft-landing in the economy. Wednesday's data on the broader economy was in line with what our ... READ MORE >
Housing prices set a record as consumer confidence dips
Economic data released on Tuesday added more mixed signals on the housing market in the wake of the wide fluctuations in mortgage rates over the past two months. At the same time, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in four months as expectations markedly deteriorated. To begin with, housing ... READ MORE >