Even as the labor market remains tight, signs of a slowdown continue to appear in different pockets of the economy. The mixed signals from Thursday's data on initial jobless claims and existing home sales added to an economic picture that resembles a soft landing when the economy bends but does not ... READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Housing starts fall to three-year low amid 7% mortgage rate
Housing starts in the United States fell by a sharp 11.3% in August, the second double-digit drop in three months, signaling more strain on the housing market because of elevated mortgage rates that exceed 7%. August's number was the lowest since June 2020 as the pandemic set in, according to Commerce ... READ MORE >
Low core inflation should keep the Fed from hiking rates
While we expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates unchanged on Wednesday, what its updated Summary of Economic Projections will look like remains less clear. More likely than not, given the recent robust economic data, we might see higher growth and inflation reflected in the summary along with an ... READ MORE >
Industrial production nears a record high as consumer sentiment falls
Industrial volume in August rose by 0.4% to the highest level in 11 months, nearing the record registered last September. The increase was stronger than expected, reflecting a boost from machinery production and mining, which increased by 2% and 1.4%, respectively. Those categories account for more ... READ MORE >
August retail sales and producer inflation show a hot summer finish
The U.S. economy ran hotter than expected in August even as the momentum in spending slowed down. Retail sales and producer inflation came in significantly higher than forecast, while initial jobless claims were lower than the market consensus. But the downward revisions to retail sales in the prior ... READ MORE >
Energy pushes inflation higher but core prices remain grounded
Consumer inflation in August posted the biggest monthly increase in more than a year, driven mostly by the surge in oil and energy prices, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday. But core inflation—which has more policy implications—grew slightly faster at 0.3% or 2.8% on a ... READ MORE >
Service sector growth in U.S. reaches a six-month high
The service sector in the United States grew faster in August on the heels of a surge in summer spending, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Wednesday. The service composite index rose to 54.5 from 52.7, marking the highest level since February. The increase was broad-based as the main ... READ MORE >
Contraction in manufacturing eased in August
The contraction in manufacturing sector eased in August, fueled by record spending on new plants in July. The data adds to signals that the manufacturing sector is nearing a bottom and that a rebound is not too far away. The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index rose to 47.6 in August, up from ... READ MORE >
Job openings drop to lowest in more than two years
Job openings fell to 8.8 million in July, staying under 9 million for the first time since March 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday. The sharp drop was a surprise as the consensus forecast had pointed to only a slight decline to 9.5 million. June's number was also revised ... READ MORE >
Business investment loses momentum in July
Business spending on equipment eked out a slight gain in July in what was a disappointing start for the investment component of the economy in the third quarter. Jobless claims, however, defied expectations again, dropping last week to the lowest level in August. Orders for capital goods that ... READ MORE >