Inflation continued to decelerate in May as the Federal Reserve's key pricing metric—the personal consumption expenditures index—grew by only 3.8% from a year ago, the lowest level in more than two years. The Fed's job in restoring price stability, however, is not done. Underlying inflation, ... READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Business equipment spending rises for the second straight month
Durable goods orders came in stronger than expected in May, driven by a sharp increase in aircraft orders from Boeing, the Commerce Department reported on Tuesday. Core orders on capital goods—a proxy for private investment excluding aircraft and defense—rose by 0.7% on the month, also above market ... READ MORE >
Is the economy headed for a recession? Jobless claims are saying yes.
The United States economy appears to be approaching a recession, as recent jobless claims data—a reliable precursor to the end of a business cycle—portends. Despite the labor market's resilience and persistently low claims compared to historical norms, the steady increases in claims since ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims highest since November 2021
Initial jobless claims last week were unchanged at 264,000, remaining at their highest level since November 2021 as the robust labor market showed signs of softening. The data, reported by the Labor Department on Thursday, suggested that the previous spike in new filings for jobless benefits ... READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits spike in May as sentiment improves
Housing starts and permits came in much stronger than expected in May as the housing market continued to improve off its low in 2022. The upside surprise raises our forecast for gross domestic product in the second quarter from a 1.5% increase to 1.8%. There were 1.6 million new housing ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment gains on improving inflation expectations
Consumer sentiment increased to 63.9 in June, the highest since March as views on current and future economic conditions improved, according to the University of Michigan index released on Friday. While the index has bounced off the bottom of last June, it remains much lower than the pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >
Retail sales rise more than expected amid labor market softening
Retail sales rose more than expected in May, pointing to continued resilience in spending that might push the long-awaited recession further down the road. The strong sales figure, though, was reported as layoffs continued to increase last week, government data released on Thursday ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims spike to highest since 2021
New filings for jobless benefits spiked by 28,000 last week, another sign of a softening labor market. Total new filings rose to 261,000, the highest since October 2021, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. There were no distortions to the report like the fraudulent claims in ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence falls to six-month low
Consumer confidence inched down in May to the lowest level in six months as sentiment on both the current economy and expectations weakened. More important, labor market sentiment fell to the lowest level in two years, signaling a potential significant slowdown in May's job gains. More data on the jobs ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims edge up but fraud spurs big downward revisions
Initial jobless claims underwent a significant downward revision after a spike in fraudulent claims led to a distortion in the data. New filings for jobless benefits released by the Labor Department on Thursday increased slightly by 4,000 last week, but the more noteworthy change was a ... READ MORE >