Canada’s inflation rate dropped to 4.3% in March on an annual basis from 5.4% in the prior month, driven largely by comparisons to the surging energy and food prices of a year ago, according to data released by Statistics Canada on Tuesday. While disinflation was expected as the Bank of ... READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Lower-than-expected retail sales raise recession probability
Retail sales dropped for the second month in a row in March as demand for goods and food services continued to ease, suggesting the end of the business cycle. If interest rate increases take six to 12 months to be felt in the economy—the accepted wisdom before the pandemic—then it is likely ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims and producer prices point to a further slowdown
New data on the labor market and inflation released on Thursday continued to show a slowing economy as it heads to a likely recession. For the Federal Reserve, that data bolstered the case that it will pause its rate increases after one final hike in this cycle on May 3. Whether to have that ... READ MORE >
Service sector growth weakens in March
Service sector activities grew at a much slower pace in March after posting solid growth in the first two months of the year, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Wednesday. The slowdown came amid increasing signs of a pullback in overall demand as tightening monetary policy, ... READ MORE >
Job openings and factory orders soften amid recession concerns
Job openings and factory orders came in lower than expected on Tuesday, continuing to show signs of softening economic demand that should work in the Federal Reserve's favor in fighting inflation. When the new data is combined with softer economic data released recently, the risk of a ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing continues to show recession signs
The manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month in a row in March, according to new data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday. The pace of the decline accelerated as the impact of steep interest rate hikes continued to weigh on overall demand. It has become evident that ... READ MORE >
Fed’s key gauges of inflation soften in February
Key inflation, spending and income data released on Friday should make the Federal Reserve's so-called dovish rate hike of 25 basis points in March a lot more reasonable by now. It also reaffirmed our call that the end of the hiking cycle is only a couple of months away. While the data ... READ MORE >
Jobless claims inch up while revised GDP shows softer growth
New filings for jobless benefits inched up to 198,000 last week from 191,000 the previous week, staying below the pre-pandemic level, according to government data released Thursday. Claims numbers have been consistently low recently, showing a resilient labor market where demand for labor ... READ MORE >
Core business investment orders inched up in February
Durable goods orders in February fell for the second month in a row, driven mostly by declines in orders for automobiles, aircraft and defense. Total orders dropped by 1% while autos, aircraft and defense orders were down by 0.9%, 6.6% and 7.4%, respectively, according to Commerce Department ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims drop further
New claims for unemployment benefits inched lower than expected for the second month in a row last week, continuing to signal a tight labor market despite recent bank failures. Claims fell by 1,000 to 191,000, remaining below the pre-pandemic average and below expectations of a slight ... READ MORE >