Under our base case, a loss of 2.5 million jobs is consistent with a 5.1% unemployment rate, 3% inflation and a likely recession under current economic conditions. … READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Jobless claims and housing starts come in hotter than expected
Jobless claims and housing starts blew past forecasts in the most recent reports released Thursday, both showing stronger-than-expected results amid a looming economic downturn. … READ MORE >
Canada’s job gains came in hotter than expected as wage growth spiked
The net change in Canada’s total employment dropped to 21,800 from a whopping 150,000 increase in January yet remained above the expectations of only 10,000. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims spike to highest level since December
New claims for jobless benefits last week came in hotter than expected at 211,000, significantly higher than the 190,000 of the previous week. … READ MORE >
Job openings remained plentiful in January, adding to pressure on the Fed
January’s job openings—a proxy for labor demand—fell to 10.8 million from an upwardly revised 11.2 million in December. … READ MORE >
U.S. service sector expands in back-to-back months
The U.S. service purchasing managers index registered at 55.1 in February, only slightly lower than the prior month at 55.2. … READ MORE >
New jobless claims fall again amid strong labor market
New claims dropped by 2,000 to 190,000 for the week ending Feb. 24, lower than the pre-pandemic average at 218,000, according to Labor Department data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector shrinks again in February amid falling demand
The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index in February was 47.7, remaining below the long-term breakeven point of 48.7. … READ MORE >
Consumer confidence falls in February amid a worsening outlook
The top-line confidence index dropped to 102.9 from 106.0 in the prior month, while the expectations index fell to 69.7 from 76.0. … READ MORE >
Canada’s economy stalled even as consumer spending held up
The Canadian economy stalled in the fourth quarter, eking out a 0.03% gain in what was a significant downside surprise from expectations of a 1.6% increase.= … READ MORE >