The service sector continued its impressive expansion in January, growing for 43 of the past 44 months, according to the data released by the Institute for Supply Management on Monday. The overall index posted an upside surprise, rising to 53.4% from 50.5%. Anything above 49% generally indicates an ... READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Productivity continues to rise in potential game changer for economy
Paul Krugman, the Nobel laureate in economics, once said that “productivity is not everything, but in the long run it’s almost everything.” The increase in American productivity over the past year, if sustained, is a potential game changer for the economy that represents that mythical rising tide ... READ MORE >
The Fed’s key wage gauge slows to lowest level since 2021
The Employment Cost Index—the Fed's key metric for wage growth that accounts for labor composition—slowed to the lowest level since June 2021, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. The overall index eased to 0.9% in the fourth quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 1.1% ... READ MORE >
Strong job openings and consumer confidence point to robust employment gains
December's strong data on job openings and consumer confidence released on Tuesday foreshadowed another robust month of job gains in January, aligning with our above-consensus estimate for net payroll increases when the employment report is released on Friday. Job openings in the United States inched ... READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment rises above expectations in January
Consumer sentiment rose in January to the highest level since August 2021 as inflation concerns eased. American consumers showed more confidence in the economy, both now and in the future, the University of Michigan reported on Friday. The overall index increased to 78.8 from 69.7, much higher than ... READ MORE >
Consumer confidence ends the year on a positive note
Consumer confidence rose in December to the highest level in five months as sentiment on both the current and future situations improved markedly. The data from the Conference Board released on Wednesday adds to a string of economic data in recent months that supports further sustained expansion in the ... READ MORE >
U.S. retail sales grew by more than expected in November
Retail sales surprised to the upside in November as American consumers continued their robust spending. The gloomy holiday spending forecasts now seem to be out of the conversation. Instead, our estimate of billions in excess savings left on American households' balance sheets looks much more on point ... READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims remain resilient
Initial jobless claims inched up slightly to 220,000 last week, remaining within the pre-pandemic level, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. Claims have hovered around this level for quite some time, continuing to suggest a strong labor market that should support further growth in the fourth ... READ MORE >
Job openings fall to lowest level since 2021, signaling Fed pivot
Job openings came in much lower than expected in October, continuing the declining trend that began early last year. Along with a downward revision to September's data, the labor market is now the most balanced it has been since 2021. With 8.7 million job openings in October, the ... READ MORE >
U.S. economic outlook: Expansion continues into 2024
Solid consumer spending driven by real personal income gains and sustained private investment will underscore a steady pace of growth at or near the 1.8% long-run rate in the United States in 2024. We expect that policy tailwinds from both the fiscal and monetary authorities will set the stage for ... READ MORE >