While the economy is cooling down, we believe that the concerns over the so-called death of the American consumer have been exaggerated. … READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Producer prices rise 0.2%, but signs still point to lower inflation in Fed’s key gauge
Despite the producer price index coming in stronger than expected on Friday, the Federal Reserve’s most important measure of inflation, the personal consumption expenditures index, should remain near zero in June. … READ MORE >
As economy cools, Fed needs to cut rates
This overall slowing should result in the Federal Reserve’s reducing its federal funds policy rate by 25 basis points in September and December, which would put it a range between 4.75% and 5%. … READ MORE >
Job openings rise as the labor market marches toward normalization
Labor demand remained strong in May, bolstering hirings during the month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday. … READ MORE >
Manufacturing sector weakens in June
As the Federal Reserve continues to hold rates at an elevated level, demand for manufacturing goods has been dampened for most of the year. … READ MORE >
June jobs report preview: Beveridge curve implies a balanced labor market as hiring cools
We think it will soon be time for the Fed to cut rates to avoid unnecessary damage to jobs and economic growth. … READ MORE >
Slower growth raises prospect of a Fed rate cut
Economic growth appeared much softer in the first five months of the year following the release of key economic data on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Jobless claims ease as housing starts drop
Initial jobless claims dropped by 5,000 last week to 238,000 yet remained elevated near a 10-month high as housing starts fell in May to the lowest level since June 2020 … READ MORE >
Retail sales and industrial production rise in May
The soft rebound in May’s retail sales was good news, suggesting that the economy might reach a soft landing sooner than expected. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls more than expected
Consumer sentiment dropped to 65.6 in June, a seven-month low, which was much less than expected with declining sentiment on personal finances as the focus, according to the University of Michigan survey. … READ MORE >