The mixed results in the October report should not change the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate in December. … READ MORE >
Tuan Nguyen
Falling jobless claims and firmer inflation point to slower rate cuts
It will most likely will take longer for the Fed to get to its destination of a 2.9% policy rate as it forecast in September. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment in November rises to highest level since April
According to the University of Michigan’s survey in November, the sentiment index increased to 73 from 70.5 with expectations leading the increase. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims fall despite hurricane’s impact
Total initial claims dropped to 227,000 from 242,000 for the week ending Oct. 18, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. … READ MORE >
Housing starts and permits ease in September
September’s housing starts came in at 1.35 million, down 0.5% from August, while building permits, a proxy for future projects, fell 2.9% to 1.4 million. … READ MORE >
September retail sales top forecasts
Retail sales for all items increased by 0.4% while the control group grew by 0.7% in September. … READ MORE >
Producer price index implies further disinflation
The lower-than-expected producer inflation report released on Friday should offset some of the upside surprises from the consumer inflation data released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
When money has a price: How the higher cost of capital is affecting America’s real economy
Business models built around zero interest rates—and services firms with exposure to those businesses—are adapting to the return of a positive term premium in the price of money. … READ MORE >
Service sector showed fastest growth in nearly two years
The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector index grew to 54.9 in September from 51.5 in August. … READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the increase in the unemployment rate from 2023 to 2024 can be explained by the increase in labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to new additions from immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the U.S. … READ MORE >