Traditional measures of inflation don’t necessarily tell the full story of what is happening with pricing, especially in housing. That’s where other measures like the harmonized index of consumer prices are instructive … READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index
PCE inflation preview: From noise to norm, rate cuts are on the horizon
Following the release of the consumer price index and producer price index this week, we are now forecasting a 0.084% increase in the May personal consumption expenditures index, translating to a 2.6% increase on a year-over-year basis. … READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index cools in May as gas and transportation costs decline
The encouraging May CPI data released by the Labor Department on Thursday is likely to be the first in a string of constructive inflation reports that will define policy normalization at the Fed. … READ MORE >
CPI resumes disinflationary trend in April amid weakened retail sales
Overall CPI inflation rose by 0.3% in April, while core inflation—which excludes food and energy—also rose by 0.3%. This helped bring the year-over-year headline inflation down to 3.4% and core inflation to 3.6%. … READ MORE >
Hot inflation data dims prospects for a Fed rate cut in June
The year-ago consumer price index rose to 3.5% from 3.2% for overall inflation and stalled at 3.8% for the core inflation reading. … READ MORE >
February consumer price index: Sticky yet under control
Inflation remains below wage growth as real hourly wages increased by 1.1% on the month and on a year-ago basis. … READ MORE >
Geopolitical tensions and risks to the inflation outlook
Just as inflation appeared to be coming under control in recent months, rising tensions in the Middle East have shaken this view and now represent the major risk to our economic and inflation outlooks. … READ MORE >
CPI: Fed to remain patient as real wages rise 1.4%
January’s data shows that inflation is continuing to ease even as wages increase on an inflation-adjusted basis—an undeniably positive development. … READ MORE >
U.S. November Consumer Price Index: Inflation continues to abate
Inflation continued to abate in November as energy prices declined by 2.3% and gasoline prices dropped by 6%, resulting in a 0.1% monthly advance in the CPI. … READ MORE >
FOMC preview and the logic of Fed rate cuts in 2024
After nearly two years of raising the federal funds policy rate to restore price stability, the Federal Reserve is poised to all but declare that campaign to be over at its meeting next week. … READ MORE >