Once one excludes the more volatile trade and inventory data, growth advanced at a much softer pace of 1.2% implied by final sales to private domestic purchasers. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP
Tariff pause buoys trade data amid warning signs in labor and spending
A sharp narrowing of the goods trade deficit in June will most likely provide a boost to second-quarter gross domestic product, but the headline number masks underlying economic fragility. Labor market activity slowed notably during the month, and signs of weakening consumer demand suggest more turbulence ahead, even as confidence … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Private domestic demand excluding trade and inventories will point the way on GDP
U.S. growth in the second quarter most likely advanced at a 2.5% rate following the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter of the year. … READ MORE >
Mixed economic data points to bumpy road ahead
Looking forward, expect more volatility in June from geopolitical tensions and in July when the tariff pause expires. … READ MORE >
Robust household consumption supports 2.3% GDP growth
We expect growth this year to expand at a 2.5% pace with risk of a quicker pace of expansion—above 3%—as the economy continues to outperform its global peers. … READ MORE >
The Fed is right: Strong GDP data points to fewer rate cuts
The latest estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter came out stronger than expected, rising by 3.1% instead of 2.8%. … READ MORE >
Durable goods orders were mixed in October as Q3 GDP remained strong
Business spending on equipment was mixed in October, likely because of uncertainty over the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
The American economy continues to undergo a regime change that will bring less volatility and greater resilience to shocks. … READ MORE >
American economic outperformance continues as GDP expands by 2.8%
The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with full employment, price stability and strong productivity gains. … READ MORE >
A nascent dollar bloc: Re-globalization amid U.S.-Chinese tensions
We see a nascent dollar trading bloc forming out of need to protect essential industries. … READ MORE >