We expect a 2.2% increase in U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter when the data is released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP
Market Minute: How much pain can the U.S. economy absorb?
Today, with the price of gas at $3.10, we are still well below levels where one should begin talking about larger risks to economic expansion. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: RSM GDP Nowcast showing 4.5% growth in first quarter
We can be confident that the rebound in government spending following the extended shutdown last fall will add about 1 to 1.5 percentage points to overall GDP growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising U.S. labor productivity
The productivity data should show a year-over-year increase of nearly 5% should the first estimate for third-quarter GDP, which came in at a strong 4.3%, prove durable. … READ MORE >
American economy is a resilient beast even as job creation slows
Top-line growth advanced by 4.3% in the third quarter despite the adverse trade and immigration shocks the economy has absorbed over the past year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: All I got from the crummy government shutdown is a 1.5% drag on GDP
Dislocation around government paychecks, SNAP payments and the permanent loss of income by government contractors over the past six weeks will take a number of weeks to unwind. … READ MORE >
GDP grew by 3% in second quarter, but underlying data suggests a rate closer to 1%
Once one excludes the more volatile trade and inventory data, growth advanced at a much softer pace of 1.2% implied by final sales to private domestic purchasers. … READ MORE >
Tariff pause buoys trade data amid warning signs in labor and spending
A sharp narrowing of the goods trade deficit in June will most likely provide a boost to second-quarter gross domestic product, but the headline number masks underlying economic fragility. Labor market activity slowed notably during the month, and signs of weakening consumer demand suggest more turbulence ahead, even as confidence … … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Private domestic demand excluding trade and inventories will point the way on GDP
U.S. growth in the second quarter most likely advanced at a 2.5% rate following the 0.5% contraction in the first quarter of the year. … READ MORE >
Mixed economic data points to bumpy road ahead
Looking forward, expect more volatility in June from geopolitical tensions and in July when the tariff pause expires. … READ MORE >