Looking forward, expect more volatility in June from geopolitical tensions and in July when the tariff pause expires. … READ MORE >
U.S. GDP
Robust household consumption supports 2.3% GDP growth
We expect growth this year to expand at a 2.5% pace with risk of a quicker pace of expansion—above 3%—as the economy continues to outperform its global peers. … READ MORE >
The Fed is right: Strong GDP data points to fewer rate cuts
The latest estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter came out stronger than expected, rising by 3.1% instead of 2.8%. … READ MORE >
Durable goods orders were mixed in October as Q3 GDP remained strong
Business spending on equipment was mixed in October, likely because of uncertainty over the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
The American economy continues to undergo a regime change that will bring less volatility and greater resilience to shocks. … READ MORE >
American economic outperformance continues as GDP expands by 2.8%
The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with full employment, price stability and strong productivity gains. … READ MORE >
A nascent dollar bloc: Re-globalization amid U.S.-Chinese tensions
We see a nascent dollar trading bloc forming out of need to protect essential industries. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth. It’s a remarkable policy achievement. … READ MORE >
Robust economic revisions defy recession doubts
Significant revisions to income and gross domestic product from 2020 through last year help explain why the market underestimated the continuing robust economic rebound. … READ MORE >
American economy grew by 2.8% in second quarter, exceeding forecasts
A strong labor market, rising real wages and a 1% increase in disposable income bolstered household spending, which advanced by a sustainable 2.3%. … READ MORE >