The American economy is navigating an air-pocket that has caused it to rapidly lose altitude. It has entered a period that is best characterized as stagflation and that will in the near term limit the degrees of freedom on policy at the Federal Reserve. … READ MORE >
U.S. gross domestic product
Robust household consumption supports 2.3% GDP growth
We expect growth this year to expand at a 2.5% pace with risk of a quicker pace of expansion—above 3%—as the economy continues to outperform its global peers. … READ MORE >
Strong core business spending hints at another robust GDP report
American business spending on core equipment came in higher than forecast in December, with both orders and shipments pointing to strong growth to end the year. … READ MORE >
The Fed is right: Strong GDP data points to fewer rate cuts
The latest estimate of gross domestic product in the third quarter came out stronger than expected, rising by 3.1% instead of 2.8%. … READ MORE >
Durable goods orders were mixed in October as Q3 GDP remained strong
Business spending on equipment was mixed in October, likely because of uncertainty over the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. … READ MORE >
The U.S. economic year ahead: Regime change, growth and rising interest rates
The American economy continues to undergo a regime change that will bring less volatility and greater resilience to shocks. … READ MORE >
American economic outperformance continues as GDP expands by 2.8%
The U.S. economy continues to show strength, with full employment, price stability and strong productivity gains. … READ MORE >
U.S. port strike will have a modest impact on GDP
The strike by port workers along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States will provide a modest hit to GDP of a little more than 0.1 percentage points per week, or roughly $4.3 billion in lost exports and imports. … READ MORE >
Robust economic revisions defy recession doubts
Significant revisions to income and gross domestic product from 2020 through last year help explain why the market underestimated the continuing robust economic rebound. … READ MORE >
American outperformance in the post-pandemic global economy
The U.S. economy is outperforming in growth and employment, and in controlling inflation, without causing the economy to fall into an extended period of slow growth or outright recession. … READ MORE >