Gross domestic product slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter in the United States, but a large part of that slowdown can be attributed to a significant increase in the trade deficit related to the AI buildout. … READ MORE >
U.S. gross domestic product
Market Minute: Expect second-quarter GDP to increase by 2.3%
Two events added to the quarter’s demand: Amazon’s Prime Day and the opening weeks of the World Cup. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What to expect in first-quarter GDP
We expect a 2.2% increase in U.S. gross domestic product for the first quarter when the data is released on Thursday. … READ MORE >
RSM lowers GDP forecast for 2026 to 1.7%
We estimate that there is a 30% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, up from 20% before the war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: How much pain can the U.S. economy absorb?
Today, with the price of gas at $3.10, we are still well below levels where one should begin talking about larger risks to economic expansion. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: RSM GDP Nowcast showing 4.5% growth in first quarter
We can be confident that the rebound in government spending following the extended shutdown last fall will add about 1 to 1.5 percentage points to overall GDP growth. … READ MORE >
In GDP and inflation data, a rich juxtaposition of discontent
The economy slowed to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, which is below its 1.8% long-term trend, while the personal consumption expenditures price index stands at 2.9%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Revising our Fed rate call and our growth scenarios
We are updating our FOMC rate forecast to expect one 25 basis-point rate cut this year, either at the July or September meeting. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising U.S. labor productivity
The productivity data should show a year-over-year increase of nearly 5% should the first estimate for third-quarter GDP, which came in at a strong 4.3%, prove durable. … READ MORE >
American economy is a resilient beast even as job creation slows
Top-line growth advanced by 4.3% in the third quarter despite the adverse trade and immigration shocks the economy has absorbed over the past year. … READ MORE >