We estimate that there is a 30% probability of a recession over the next 12 months, up from 20% before the war. … READ MORE >
U.S. gross domestic product
Market Minute: How much pain can the U.S. economy absorb?
Today, with the price of gas at $3.10, we are still well below levels where one should begin talking about larger risks to economic expansion. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: RSM GDP Nowcast showing 4.5% growth in first quarter
We can be confident that the rebound in government spending following the extended shutdown last fall will add about 1 to 1.5 percentage points to overall GDP growth. … READ MORE >
In GDP and inflation data, a rich juxtaposition of discontent
The economy slowed to 1.4% in the fourth quarter, which is below its 1.8% long-term trend, while the personal consumption expenditures price index stands at 2.9%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Revising our Fed rate call and our growth scenarios
We are updating our FOMC rate forecast to expect one 25 basis-point rate cut this year, either at the July or September meeting. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Rising U.S. labor productivity
The productivity data should show a year-over-year increase of nearly 5% should the first estimate for third-quarter GDP, which came in at a strong 4.3%, prove durable. … READ MORE >
American economy is a resilient beast even as job creation slows
Top-line growth advanced by 4.3% in the third quarter despite the adverse trade and immigration shocks the economy has absorbed over the past year. … READ MORE >
RSM’s U.S. outlook for 2026: An acceleration in growth
We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, with the PCE inflation rate reaching 2.7% and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. … READ MORE >
GDP grew by 3% in second quarter, but underlying data suggests a rate closer to 1%
Once one excludes the more volatile trade and inventory data, growth advanced at a much softer pace of 1.2% implied by final sales to private domestic purchasers. … READ MORE >
Tariff pause buoys trade data amid warning signs in labor and spending
A sharp narrowing of the goods trade deficit in June will most likely provide a boost to second-quarter gross domestic product, but the headline number masks underlying economic fragility. Labor market activity slowed notably during the month, and signs of weakening consumer demand suggest more turbulence ahead, even as confidence … … READ MORE >