While central banks have adhered to a policy maintaining inflation at a 2% target, only Canada and France have kept inflation below 2% over the past 12 months. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
U.S. households bolster spending in August as service inflation persists
Inflation dynamics inside the August PCE report illustrated stubborn service sector inflation that increased from 3.5% to 3.6% while one can observe rising goods prices. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Long-term rates rise as central banks tolerate higher inflation
As the Fed cuts rates into rising inflation, the risk of persistent increases that lead to a wider deviation from target is growing more probable. … READ MORE >
Stagflation is the story in August CPI as discretionary service prices surge
Demand for discretionary services remains stubbornly strong despite a slower pace of hiring and a softer pace of wage growth. … READ MORE >
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >
Tariffs drive producer prices higher, squeezing margins
Equity markets, buoyed in recent months by solid earnings, may face pressure as profit margins shrink after companies absorb tariff costs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are foreign exporters paying tariffs?
Most of the initial costs of tariffs are being absorbed by domestic firms and households. … READ MORE >
In the July CPI, the temperature is rising in the core
The U.S. consumer price index in July saw a meaningful increase, driven by sticky service sector pricing and tariff-induced price increases, which are all over the report. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Look beneath CPI headline to see the impact of tariffs
I expect a monthly increase of 0.3% in the top-line figure and the core, and annual increases of 2.8% for top line and 3% for the core. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Weaker dollar adds to inflation pressure as import prices rise
Once the dollar begins to depreciate, higher inflation typically follows as imported goods become more expensive. … READ MORE >