We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, with the PCE inflation rate reaching 2.7% and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
Market Minute: Canada’s financial conditions and its monetary policy path
Policy rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve are in response to both countries’ economies absorbing adverse policy shocks along with a slowing pace of hiring and wage growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Persistent inflation across the G-7
While central banks have adhered to a policy maintaining inflation at a 2% target, only Canada and France have kept inflation below 2% over the past 12 months. … READ MORE >
U.S. households bolster spending in August as service inflation persists
Inflation dynamics inside the August PCE report illustrated stubborn service sector inflation that increased from 3.5% to 3.6% while one can observe rising goods prices. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Long-term rates rise as central banks tolerate higher inflation
As the Fed cuts rates into rising inflation, the risk of persistent increases that lead to a wider deviation from target is growing more probable. … READ MORE >
Stagflation is the story in August CPI as discretionary service prices surge
Demand for discretionary services remains stubbornly strong despite a slower pace of hiring and a softer pace of wage growth. … READ MORE >
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >
Tariffs drive producer prices higher, squeezing margins
Equity markets, buoyed in recent months by solid earnings, may face pressure as profit margins shrink after companies absorb tariff costs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are foreign exporters paying tariffs?
Most of the initial costs of tariffs are being absorbed by domestic firms and households. … READ MORE >
In the July CPI, the temperature is rising in the core
The U.S. consumer price index in July saw a meaningful increase, driven by sticky service sector pricing and tariff-induced price increases, which are all over the report. … READ MORE >