Demand for discretionary services remains stubbornly strong despite a slower pace of hiring and a softer pace of wage growth. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >
Tariffs drive producer prices higher, squeezing margins
Equity markets, buoyed in recent months by solid earnings, may face pressure as profit margins shrink after companies absorb tariff costs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are foreign exporters paying tariffs?
Most of the initial costs of tariffs are being absorbed by domestic firms and households. … READ MORE >
In the July CPI, the temperature is rising in the core
The U.S. consumer price index in July saw a meaningful increase, driven by sticky service sector pricing and tariff-induced price increases, which are all over the report. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Look beneath CPI headline to see the impact of tariffs
I expect a monthly increase of 0.3% in the top-line figure and the core, and annual increases of 2.8% for top line and 3% for the core. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Weaker dollar adds to inflation pressure as import prices rise
Once the dollar begins to depreciate, higher inflation typically follows as imported goods become more expensive. … READ MORE >
Impact of tariffs appears in producer inflation despite weak toplines
The cost of goods in the producer price index rose at the quickest pace since February, by 0.3% on the month, as tariffs began to make their way into the broader economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. consumer price index creeps higher in June
Inflation has started a slow climb as signs of tariff-induced inflation are now evident within durable and nondurable imports. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Demand-side inflation implies Fed still has work to do
When the consumer price index for June is released on Tuesday, we expect a top-line monthly increase of 0.3% and 0.2% on the core, which will translate to 2.6% year-over-year increase and 2.9% on the core. … READ MORE >