The Federal Reserve will have a difficult choice of either fighting inflation or hoping to revive a sluggish labor market when it meets this week. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
Consumer spending in September was flat with holiday season approaching
Recent consumer spending data shows that the condition of U.S. households down market is sour at best and weak at worst. … READ MORE >
Retail sales fall below forecasts as demand slows
The shift in the spending cycle because of tariffs might explain why consumers pulled back in September after front-running new tariffs over the summer. … READ MORE >
RSM’s U.S. outlook for 2026: An acceleration in growth
We expect economic growth to rebound to 2.2% in 2026, with the PCE inflation rate reaching 2.7% and the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Canada’s financial conditions and its monetary policy path
Policy rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve are in response to both countries’ economies absorbing adverse policy shocks along with a slowing pace of hiring and wage growth. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Persistent inflation across the G-7
While central banks have adhered to a policy maintaining inflation at a 2% target, only Canada and France have kept inflation below 2% over the past 12 months. … READ MORE >
U.S. households bolster spending in August as service inflation persists
Inflation dynamics inside the August PCE report illustrated stubborn service sector inflation that increased from 3.5% to 3.6% while one can observe rising goods prices. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Long-term rates rise as central banks tolerate higher inflation
As the Fed cuts rates into rising inflation, the risk of persistent increases that lead to a wider deviation from target is growing more probable. … READ MORE >
Stagflation is the story in August CPI as discretionary service prices surge
Demand for discretionary services remains stubbornly strong despite a slower pace of hiring and a softer pace of wage growth. … READ MORE >
Inflation’s persistence, the Fed and expansionary fiscal policy
With inflation well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and rising, and expansionary fiscal policies about to kick in, calls for rate cuts may be premature. … READ MORE >