The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, to be released on Monday, carries the risk of sending yields higher across the curve. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
March inflation moderated in the last clean report before tariffs
Investors and policymakers should anticipate top-line and core inflation to advance at a 4% to 4.5% pace by the middle of the summer. … READ MORE >
Simultaneous shocks to tip economy into recession in current quarter
We have increased our recession probability to 55% over the next 12 months. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: First the tariff supply shock, then the inflation
With the recent round of reciprocal tariffs, the United States is heading toward another supply shock, which will spur the worst kind of inflation. … READ MORE >
Consumer sentiment falls to the lowest level since early 2023
Most notably, inflation expectations worsened, with the 12-month gauge advancing to 4.9% and the five-to-10 metric increasing to 3.9%. … READ MORE >
Quantum of solace: Inflation cools ahead of tariff-induced price increases
Service inflation and rents, though, are still advancing a well above 4%, which in conjunction with slowing growth does not bode well for the economy … READ MORE >
Market minute: Risk of stagnation, stagflation and slower growth
Despite the trading community pricing in three rate cuts this year, employment, wage and inflation data imply a Fed that may be reluctant to reduce rates into an economy that is slowing amid sticky inflation. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Goods deflation, food inflation and a lack of exemptions
Consumers face the possibility of double-digit increases in many grocery items given the quantity of fruit and vegetables imported from those two countries. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Is the fight against PCE inflation like waiting for Godot?
The January PCE inflation report, to be released Friday, will most likely show a 0.3% top-line increase on the month and a 2.5% increase from one year ago. … READ MORE >
Market minute: Rebar prices and dying disinflation
Economists have stepped up their research to ascertain if disinflation has ended and how that affects the risk matrix around the economy. … READ MORE >