Core CPI was unchanged in June as many other categories in the inflation report also showed falling prices, including used cars, education, apparel and commodities. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
RSM’s U.S. midyear economic update: Supply shocks ease
We expect that rate to accelerate to 2.5% in the current quarter and 2.1% during the final three months of the year. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Guns, butter and inflationary pressures
The increase in defense spending is boosting GDP and the labor market, but also adding pressure to inflation. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: What does the Dallas Fed trimmed mean tell us about inflation?
Investors will be looking at alternative measures like the Dallas Fed PCE trimmed mean, one of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s preferred inflation metrics. … READ MORE >
Inflation peaked in May—but return to pre-war levels not coming soon
While it is highly likely that U.S. inflation peaked in May, one should not anticipate a return to pre-war levels of inflation any time soon. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Warsh will face a searing credibility test
How will the new Fed chair balance his stated receptiveness to rate cuts with the recent rise in inflation? … READ MORE >
Inflation outpaced wage growth in May as CPI rose by 4.2%
Inflation in May pushed past 4% for the first time in more than three years because of rising energy, gasoline, transportation and airfare costs. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Supply shock, CPI and falling real wages
Our forecast for the May consumer price index implies an increase of 0.5% on the month and 4.2% from a year ago, along with a decline in real wages of 0.8% over the past 12 months … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Americans still have the travel bug
Despite surging air fares, airline demand remains on a solid trajectory that looks like the strong years of 2024 and 2025. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Four imbalances that pose a risk to the economy
Even as financial conditions remain a modest tailwind for the overall economy, there are imbalances that pose a risk to the outlook. … READ MORE >