A year that was set to benefit from tailwinds associated with a large tax cut and a boom in artificial intelligence investment has been partially offset by the supply shock. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
Producer inflation rises less than forecast
March producer prices rose by 0.5%, driven largely by energy costs. Oil prices have eased since, but supply disruptions are unlikely to fade anytime soon. … READ MORE >
March CPI: Patience and pain are the policy pathway
The consumer price index increased by 0.9% in March and by 3.3% compared to a year ago as the energy shock began to be felt in the American economy. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The coming travel slump
As the war in Iran approaches its fifth week, the shock to transportation and travel costs from surging jet fuel prices is coming into view. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Great expectations and inflation dynamics
For years, near-term public expectations of inflation were largely discounted in favor of longer-term indicators. Not anymore. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows the calm before the storm
On a month-over-month basis, the top-line PCE index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by 0.3%, with the core rate excluding food and energy rising by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Does tapping oil reserves reduce gas prices?
The U.S. consumes roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day. Even the most aggressive release, like in 2022, amounts to only a few weeks of supply. … READ MORE >
February CPI report: Beware the Ides of March
Investors should anticipate rising inflation in March as the impact of the war in the Middle East and surging energy prices is felt in the economy. … READ MORE >