Five-year breakevens since Feb. 27 have increased from 2.445% to 2.72%, the 10-year from 2.25% to 2.5% and the 30-year from 2.19% to 2.3%. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
Stagflation lite sets in as inflation surges in April
The consumer piece index rose at an annual rate of 3.8% in April, driven by the war in Iran and the supply shock that it triggered. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Inflation swaps are underpricing risk of rising CPI
We expect April’s top-line CPI to increase by 0.7% on the month and by 3.7% from one year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Are you experienced?
Households in the U.S. and Canada, whose economies have become net exporters of oil, have not been spared the rising cost of gasoline and diesel. … READ MORE >
In GDP and inflation data, an echo of what might have been
A year that was set to benefit from tailwinds associated with a large tax cut and a boom in artificial intelligence investment has been partially offset by the supply shock. … READ MORE >
Producer inflation rises less than forecast
March producer prices rose by 0.5%, driven largely by energy costs. Oil prices have eased since, but supply disruptions are unlikely to fade anytime soon. … READ MORE >
March CPI: Patience and pain are the policy pathway
The consumer price index increased by 0.9% in March and by 3.3% compared to a year ago as the energy shock began to be felt in the American economy. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows a deteriorating economy on edge of war
A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The coming travel slump
As the war in Iran approaches its fifth week, the shock to transportation and travel costs from surging jet fuel prices is coming into view. … READ MORE >