A mix of declining inflation-adjusted income growth, a reliance upon savings and credit to fund spending and a 3.7% increase on a three-month annualized pace in core inflation does not paint a flattering portrait of an economy in February, on the edge of war. … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
Market Minute: Two inflation reports, one economy
We expect that the top-line CPI for March will increase by a minimum of 1% on the month, driven by higher fuel costs, and 3.5% from a year ago. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The coming travel slump
As the war in Iran approaches its fifth week, the shock to transportation and travel costs from surging jet fuel prices is coming into view. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Great expectations and inflation dynamics
For years, near-term public expectations of inflation were largely discounted in favor of longer-term indicators. Not anymore. … READ MORE >
PCE inflation data shows the calm before the storm
On a month-over-month basis, the top-line PCE index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by 0.3%, with the core rate excluding food and energy rising by 0.4%. … READ MORE >
Does tapping oil reserves reduce gas prices?
The U.S. consumes roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day. Even the most aggressive release, like in 2022, amounts to only a few weeks of supply. … READ MORE >
February CPI report: Beware the Ides of March
Investors should anticipate rising inflation in March as the impact of the war in the Middle East and surging energy prices is felt in the economy. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: War, oil and inflation swaps
With oil exceeding $100 a barrel over the weekend, it won’t be until the March CPI report is released in April that the impact of the conflict will become clear. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: The U.S. economy and markets after seven days of war
The economic imbalances among households across the American economy will become a searing focal point should this conflict endure. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: How much pain can the U.S. economy absorb?
Today, with the price of gas at $3.10, we are still well below levels where one should begin talking about larger risks to economic expansion. … READ MORE >