We expect the Fed to keep its eyes on preserving full employment amid general price stability, which points to a further reduction in interest rates throughout the remainder of the year … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation
American economy grew by 2.8% in second quarter, exceeding forecasts
A strong labor market, rising real wages and a 1% increase in disposable income bolstered household spending, which advanced by a sustainable 2.3%. … READ MORE >
Further disinflation in the June consumer price index points to a Fed rate cut
The road is now open to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Broad-based core goods inflation along with easing energy and transportation costs all continue be the primary factors behind inflation’s decline from 9.1% in June 2022 to its current 3%. … READ MORE >
As economy cools, Fed needs to cut rates
This overall slowing should result in the Federal Reserve’s reducing its federal funds policy rate by 25 basis points in September and December, which would put it a range between 4.75% and 5%. … READ MORE >
U.S. harmonized index of consumer prices: A more accurate metric of disinflation?
Traditional measures of inflation don’t necessarily tell the full story of what is happening with pricing, especially in housing. That’s where other measures like the harmonized index of consumer prices are instructive … READ MORE >
U.S. inflation expectations are well anchored as Fed nears decision
Our read on the economy, hiring and the labor market suggests that the Fed can ease rates without dislodging well-anchored expectations and still establish price stability. … READ MORE >
U.S. gas prices poised to decline by 10% ahead of July 4
Because of supply conditions and easing demand, domestic gasoline prices peaked at $3.67 per gallon for regular on April 18 and have declined since then. They are poised to decline even further. … READ MORE >
Initial jobless claims jump as inflation continues to improve
The weekly initial jobless claims figure was the highest level in almost a year, nearing the threshold of 250,000 that in our view signals conditions for a possible recession. … READ MORE >
FOMC holds rates steady but is divided on their direction
Seven FOMC members supported one cut this year, eight supported two and four supported no cuts. Overall, the forecast projects a 5.125% rate later this year. … READ MORE >
Job openings fall to a three-year low as manufacturing softens
Job openings in March plunged to 8.49 million, the lowest level in three years, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday. … READ MORE >