The American labor market bounced back in November with the creation of 227,000 jobs, a rebound from the hurricane-related distortions of October and further evidence that the labor market remains remarkably stable. Once one corrects for the noise in the data, the pace of hiring looks to be near ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report
Morning market minute: Will wage growth moderate?
A look at U.S. wage growth ahead of the November U.S. jobs report to be released today should translate to a gain of 3.9% on a year-ago basis. We expect a net change in total employment of 220,000 positions, a 4.1% unemployment rate and a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings. Solid job growth in ... READ MORE >
Distortions in the October U.S. jobs report mask underlying strength
The October jobs report is to be taken seriously but not literally. Once one adds the downward revision of 112,000 jobs for August and September to the 12,000 gain in October, there was a decline in total employment of 100,000 inside the report. We would urge investors, firm managers and ... READ MORE >
October jobs report will be distorted by hurricane and strike
We expect that Hurricane Helene and labor action at Boeing will distort the jobs data for October. The employment report, which will be released on Nov. 1, will most likely be the first of two reports that will understate the true condition of the American labor market. Read more of RSM's insights ... READ MORE >
October surprise: U.S. economy added 254,000 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.1%
The U.S. economy generated 254,000 jobs in September, exceeding forecasts, and the unemployment rate declined to 4.1% as growth continues to barrel along at or above a 3% pace. When taken out to three digits, the jobless rate was 4.051%, which means it narrowly missed the Federal Reserve’s 4% ... READ MORE >
Why the labor market is stronger than the unemployment rate indicates
At least 19% of the rise in the unemployment rate since last year can be explained by the increase in the labor supply. Since 2021, the return of workers to the labor force, in addition to immigration and population growth, has been a key driver of overall unemployment in the United States. Even though ... READ MORE >
Manufacturing and labor markets give mixed signals amid Fed’s pivot
The mixed signals from data on job openings and the ISM manufacturing index, both released on Tuesday, offer a nuanced picture of the economy as the Federal Reserve transitions to a period to lower rates. During the transition of interest rates, not everything will go in the same direction. Elevated ... READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: A soft landing in the economy
The U.S. August report was a solid if unspectacular one that reflected the type of non-inflationary job growth that will give Federal Reserve policymakers confidence as they embark on their long-awaited campaign to reduce rates. Once one adjusts for the benchmark revision, employment has been ... READ MORE >
Expect strong U.S. jobs report for August, but the devil is in the details
We expect a net gain in total employment of 175,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.2% when the U.S. jobs report is released on Sept. 6. In addition, we expect average hourly earnings to increase by 0.3% on the month and for the year-ago figure to cool slightly to a 3.5% gain. The key to any ... READ MORE >
U.S. July employment report to show a gain of 200,000 jobs
Our provisional forecast for the July jobs report when it is released on Friday implies a net increase in total employment of 200,000 jobs with an easing in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4%. In addition, we forecast a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, which should translate to a 3.7% ... READ MORE >