After a lengthy period of outsized gains, the American labor market is now cooling in a gradual and orderly fashion in line with the Federal Reserve’s goals, which points to a growing probability of a soft landing for the economy. The 187,000 net change in total employment in July, which was ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report
U.S. employment report: Strong gains continue in June
A remarkable run of monthly job gains continued in June as the American economy generated 209,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. For the year, 1.67 million new jobs have been created, an average of more than 278,000 jobs each month, according to data released by the Bureau ... READ MORE >
Hiring in U.S. remains robust in April as the jobless rate falls to 3.4%
We have made the case over the past few months that resilience rather than recession is a more apt description of the American economy. The net change in employment in the April jobs report of 253,000 reported by the Labor Department on Friday reflects that resilience. In addition, the ... READ MORE >
February’s jobs report is likely to generate more questions than answers
The February jobs report will most likely provide another questionable estimate of labor conditions in the American economy, overstating the pace of hiring in the private sector. We expect a net change in total employment of 310,000 when the data is released on Friday, with many of the gains ... READ MORE >
U.S. economy generates 4.5 million jobs in 2022 as labor market remains hot
If one would have asked a year ago if the economy would expand at above a 2.5% clip and produce 4.52 million jobs by the end of the year, all while the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 450 basis points, the answer would probably have been no. But that is just where the economy stands ... READ MORE >
Jobs report preview: Strong close to year as wages remain elevated
We expect the December U.S. jobs report on Friday to show an increase in total employment of 220,000 positions, which would bring the total number of jobs created last year to roughly 4.53 million. While such a gain would fall below the three-month moving average of 263,000 through the end of ... READ MORE >
U.S. jobs report: Rising wages pose a problem as hiring remains strong
Expectations that wage growth would slow were dashed inside the U.S. jobs report for November as average hourly earnings increased by 5.1% on a year-ago basis and by 0.6% on the month in addition to being revised higher in October. The primary policy takeaway from the report is that the Federal ... READ MORE >
U.S. August jobs report: Another robust month as employment increases by 315,000
American labor market dynamics remain tilted toward sustained strength in hiring and rising wages. In August, U.S. total employment increased by 315,000 while the unemployment rate increased to 3.7% (3.65%). The labor force participation rate advanced to 62.4% on the back of 786,000 people ... READ MORE >
Payroll employment returns to pre-pandemic levels
The unemployment rate in the United States, taken out to three decimal points, now stands at 3.458%, the lowest in 50 years and one that many of us will most likely not observe again in our career arcs. Perhaps more important, the labor market has reached a milestone: a general return to pre-pandemic ... READ MORE >