On Thursday, we expect initial claims to move to near the current 13-week moving average of 213,000. in a reflection of the low-fire, low-hire economy. … READ MORE >
U.S. labor market
Jobs report shows that slow-hire, slow-fire remains base case
The American economy added 130,000 jobs in January, enough to push the unemployment rate down to 4.3% amid a large downward revision in total employment from April 2024. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: January jobs report preview
We expect an increase in total employment of 60,000 jobs for January with the unemployment rate holding at 4.4%. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: Deteriorating expectations on inflation and household finances
The Federal Reserve will have a difficult choice of either fighting inflation or hoping to revive a sluggish labor market when it meets this week. … READ MORE >
Falling demand suggests further labor market deterioration
Fresh data from ADP, Revelio Labs and Challenger, Gray & Christmas all point to the prospect that weakness in labor demand is becoming entrenched and is not temporary. … READ MORE >
Private sector lost 32,000 jobs in September, ADP reports
ADP reported a net decline of 32,000 jobs in September, driven by a decreased of 40,000 among small firms and 20,000 among medium-size firms. … READ MORE >
Job openings inch up in August as labor market stabilizes
The labor market continued to rebound on the month after bottoming out in May and June. … READ MORE >
Market Minute: U.S. July jobs report preview
We expect a net gain of 150,000 jobs and an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2% when the U.S. employment report for July is released on Friday. … READ MORE >
Continuing claims reach post-pandemic high
Jobless claims data now points to rising labor market slack, as business conditions grow increasingly uncertain amid shifting trade, fiscal, and monetary policies. … READ MORE >
Job openings rise above expectations in January
The quit rate, a proxy for labor demand, rose in January, indicating that workers were in a stronger bargaining position as demand increased. … READ MORE >